Re: [gang8] Re: Is Bernanke Behind The Rallies? Query to Barkley

["Gunnar Tomasson" <gunnar.tomasson@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

> These net
> foreign assets remain outside of the yen economy.

And their YEN counterpart remains inside the yen economy.

The BoJ's Net Foreign Assets are 100% paid for in YEN.

Ditto for the Monetary System's Net Foreign Asset holdings.

Japan's "trade surplus (in dollars) ... is fully reconverted back into
yens."

Gunnar



----- Original Message -----
From: "Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <gang8@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <bjm@xxxxxxxxx>; <pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, June 25, 2003 9:29 AM
Subject: Re: [gang8] Re: Is Bernanke Behind The Rallies? Query to Barkley


>
>
> Gunnar Tomasson wrote:
> > Henry:
> >
> > The suggestion that Japan's "trade surplus (in dollars) [can] drain the
yen
> > money supply at a faster rate than BoJ injection, because dollars earned
> > from trade is not fully reconverted back into yens" is incoherent.
> >
> > 1.  A "trade surplus (in dollars)" = increase in Net Foreign Assets.
> >
> > 2.  The Monetary System uses Yen to buy "trade surplus dollars".
> >
> > 3.  I.e., the "trade surplus" is "fully reconverted back into yens."
>
> Not so.  Whereas the Boj shows its monetary accounts in yen, the net
> foreign assets are still in fact held in dollars.  The dollar buying by
> the BoJ is a small portion of Japan's trade surplus in dollars.  The
> "not fully convertable" remains operative as a description. These net
> foreign assets remain outside of the yen economy.
>
> Henry
>
> >
> > Gunnar
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <gang8@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Cc: <bjm@xxxxxxxxx>; <pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, June 24, 2003 10:36 PM
> > Subject: Re: [gang8] Re: Is Bernanke Behind The Rallies? Query to
Barkley
> >
> >
> >
> >>Gunnar:
> >>
> >>With all due respect to IMF bread and butter stuff, you are losing me as
> >>to what your point is.
> >>
> >>See BoJ Explanation of "Monetary Staistics":
> >>
> >>http://www.boj.or.jp/en/stat/exp/exbase.htm
> >>
> >>Henry
> >>
> >>Gunnar Tomasson wrote:
> >>
> >>>Henry:
> >>>
> >>>In terms of Monetary Survey entries - the bread-and-butter stuff of IMF
> >>>staff analysis of monetary developments -  the proposition that:
> >>>
> >>>When the BoJ buys dollars, it keeps the yen exchange rate low and
> >>>increases the Jpanese trade surplus (in dollars), draining the yen
> >>>money supply at a faster rate that BoJ injection, because the dollars
> >>>earned from trade is not fully reconverted back into yens,
> >>>
> >>>means - and can only mean - one thing.
> >>>
> >>>Namely,  that "the Japanese trade surplus" - more Dollars being
> >>
> > exchanged
> >
> >>>for Yens - does NOT show up as one-to-one INCREASE in the Monetary
> >>
> > Survey's
> >
> >>>YEN component.
> >>>
> >>>Gunnar
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>----- Original Message -----
> >>>From: "Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>>To: <gang8@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>>Cc: <bjm@xxxxxxxxx>; <pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>>Sent: Tuesday, June 24, 2003 8:58 PM
> >>>Subject: Re: [gang8] Re: Is Bernanke Behind The Rallies? Query to
> >>
> > Barkley
> >
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>Foreign asset held by Japan (dollars) rose by Y29.22 trilllion and
> >>>>domestic credit 0.29.
> >>>>
> >>>>Why does that not support what I wrote?
> >>>>
> >>>>Henry
> >>>>
> >>>>Gunnar Tomasson wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>>Henry:
> >>>>>
> >>>>>I just checked out Japan's Monetary Survey in the June 2003 issue of
> >>>>
> > the
> >
> >>>>>IMF's International Financial Statistics.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>Between Year-end 1999 and 2002,
> >>>>>
> >>>>>(a)  Foreign Assets (Net) rose (in trillion yen) from 44.77 to 73.99;
> >>>>
> > an
> >
> >>>>>increase of 29.22, while
> >>>>>
> >>>>>(b) Domestic Credit rose from 712.82 to 713.78; an increase of 0.96,
> >>>>
> >>>with
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>>Claims on Central Government (net) and Private Sector rising by 57.06
> >>>>
> >>>and
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>>falling by 60.47, respectively.
> >>>>>
> >>>>>The increase in Foreign Assets (Net) does not square with the
> >>>>
> > following:
> >
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>When the BoJ buys dollars, it keeps the yen exchange rate low and
> >>>>>>>increases the Jpanese trade surplus (in dollars), drainging the yen
> >>>>>>>money supply at a faster rate that BoJ injection, because the
dollars
> >>>>>>>earned from trade is not fully reconverted back into yens.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>Gunnar
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>----- Original Message -----
> >>>>>From: "Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>>>>To: <gang8@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>>>>Cc: <bjm@xxxxxxxxx>; <pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>>>>Sent: Tuesday, June 24, 2003 1:35 PM
> >>>>>Subject: Re: [gang8] Re: Is Bernanke Behind The Rallies? Query to
> >>>>
> >>>Barkley
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>My analysis has been checked out at a high level in the BoJ with
whcih
> >>>>>
> > I
> >
> >>>>>>have private contact.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>In more than two years since the zero interest policy announcement,
> >>>>>
> > the
> >
> >>>>>>BoJ has significantly expanded money as measured by the monetary
base,
> >>>>>>which is bank reserves plus currency in circulation.  The monetary
> >>>>>
> > base
> >
> >>>>>>is up 34 percent since the Bank of Japan began its new policy.
> >>>>>
> > However,
> >
> >>>>>>broader measures of liquidity that are more closely associated with
> >>>>>>general price increases have not grown nearly as rapidly for reasons
> >>>>>>stated above. The growth rate of broad money, which includes
> >>>>>
> > individual
> >
> >>>>>>and business deposits at banks, has hardly increased at all.
> >>>>>
> > Moreover,
> >
> >>>>>>bank lending has not increased due to a liquidity trap.  As the
> >>>>>
> > Japanese
> >
> >>>>>>trade surplus adds to Japan’s dollar reserves, yen deposits and
loans
> >>>>>>remain stagnant.  Even after adjusting for loan write-offs, bank
> >>>>>
> > lending
> >
> >>>>>>was down 2.6 percent in 2002 and consumer prices continue to fall.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>The reason the increase in the growth rate of the monetary base has
> >>>>>
> > not
> >
> >>>>>>resulted in higher growth of loans and deposits at banks, or a rise
in
> >>>>>>prices, is not, as some economists suggest, that the increase in the
> >>>>>>monetary base has not been sustained for long enough.  Nor are more
> >>>>>>increases needed in reserve balances banks hold at the BoJ, a key
> >>>>>>component of the monetary base.  The traditional anti-inflation bias
> >>>>>
> > of
> >
> >>>>>>the central banking regime has deprived policymakers of any
historical
> >>>>>>guide in overcoming persistent deflation.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>The current round of global deflation is caused by weak demand
> >>>>>
> > resulting
> >
> >>>>>>from the effects of dollar hegemony as sustained by a global central
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>banking regime regulated by the Bank of International Settlement
> >>>>>
> > (BIS).
> >
> >>>>>>The neo-liberal globalization of trade and finance prevents all
> >>>>>>non-dollar economies from effectively increasing their local
currency
> >>>>>>money supply for domestic development.  To avoid speculative attacks
> >>>>>
> > on
> >
> >>>>>>their currencies, all increases in local currency money supply must
be
> >>>>>>channeled to fuel export for trade surplus in dollars.  This shrinks
> >>>>>
> > the
> >
> >>>>>>exporting economies’ own money supply while adding to the dollar
money
> >>>>>>supply to fuel the dollar economy at the expense of non-dollar
> >>>>>>economies.  Consumers in non-dollar economies are robbed of
purchasing
> >>>>>>power because low wages are necessary to compete in the global
export
> >>>>>>market to accumulate trade surpluses in foreign currencies, mostly
> >>>>>>dollars.  At the same time state credit cannot be used to finance
> >>>>>>domestic development to raise income for fear of inducing
speculative
> >>>>>>attacks on the local currencies.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>Neo-liberal economists argue that the main reason why the increase
in
> >>>>>>the monetary base has not yet worked in Japan is due to
non-performing
> >>>>>>loans (NPL) in the banking sector.   They point out that funds
loaned
> >>>>>
> > by
> >
> >>>>>>commercial banks and spent by borrowers create deposits at other
banks
> >>>>>>that can then be lent out to other borrowers.  According to
> >>>>>>neo-classical monetary economics, this is the way an increase in the
> >>>>>>monetary base (high power money) leads to an increase in the amount
of
> >>>>>>broad money and higher prices, through the money creation power of
> >>>>>>banks.  But banks that are burdened by NPLs do not seek out new,
> >>>>>>profitable loan opportunities, even when they have excess reserves.
> >>>>>>Neo-liberal economists argue that a change in banking policy that
> >>>>>>effectively deals with the NPL problem will lead to more banks and
> >>>>>
> > more
> >
> >>>>>>businesses seeking out new opportunities and creating new loans.
They
> >>>>>>make this argument all over Asia, in fact, all over the world.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>For Japan, they argue that solving the NPL problem would
significantly
> >>>>>>increase the ability of the BoJ to increase broad money, increase
bank
> >>>>>>lending, and raise the price level.  This is like arguing that after
> >>>>>
> > you
> >
> >>>>>>leave the gas running in the kitchen stove without first lighting
it,
> >>>>>
> > an
> >
> >>>>>>explosion would result when you finally light it. Therefore you must
> >>>>>
> > now
> >
> >>>>>>turn off the gas and open all the windows and there is no
alternative
> >>>>>
> > to
> >
> >>>>>>suffering uncooked food for a while until the air is clear.  But
> >>>>>>neo-liberals are careful to not tell you that it was they who first
> >>>>>>suggested that you blow out the pilot light of national banking.  If
> >>>>>
> > the
> >
> >>>>>>pilot light of national banking had remained lit, the economic
kitchen
> >>>>>>of Japan would still be producing delicious hot food.  Turning the
gas
> >>>>>>on without a lit pilot light will cause an explosion again, no
matter
> >>>>>>how many times you open the window to clear the air temporarily.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>A recent BoJ report highlights the nature of the NPL problem,
> >>>>>>effectively arguing that NPLs are not simply the legacy of the old
> >>>>>>bubble days, but reflect continuing problems in the banking sector.
> >>>>>>There is truth to that observation, but the BoJ report fails to note
> >>>>>>that the NPL problem is a bastard child of central banking.  The BoJ
> >>>>>>argues that the NPL problem must be addressed quickly.  And there is
> >>>>>>also truth to that view.  Problem loans do exert a heavy toll on
> >>>>>
> > banks.
> >
> >>>>>>Heavily burdened banks lose the ability to focus on new lending to
> >>>>>
> > new
> >
> >>>>>>business opportunities.  A banking system that is weighed down by
bad
> >>>>>>loans cannot fulfill its role of gauging risk and return and
> >>>>>
> > channeling
> >
> >>>>>>savings to the most profitable investments.  Banking problems also
> >>>>>
> > exert
> >
> >>>>>>a heavy toll on the economy.  Borrowers who are not servicing NPLs
are
> >>>>>>frequently owners of assets -- property, buildings, capital
> >>>>>
> > equipment --
> >
> >>>>>>that are not being used productively or profitably in a free market.
> >>>>>>All this is valid, but only in a central banking regime.  Under a
> >>>>>>national banking regime, these problems remain, but they take on a
> >>>>>
> > very
> >
> >>>>>>different character.  Under national banking, rather than private
bank
> >>>>>>profits deciding what should be financed, the national purpose
decides
> >>>>>>what is financially profitable.  Furthermore, the claim that
cleaning
> >>>>>>out NPLs in the Japanese banking system under a central banking
regime
> >>>>>>will revive the Japanese economy has not been empirically verified.
> >>>>>
> > It
> >
> >>>>>>is only part of the snake oil cure promoted by the Washington
> >>>>>
> > Consensus
> >
> >>>>>>to perpetuate dollar hegemony.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>Gunnar Tomasson wrote:
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>>Henry:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>Re. the following:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>When the BoJ buys dollars, it keeps the yen exchange rate low and
> >>>>>>>increases the Jpanese trade surplus (in dollars), drainging the yen
> >>>>>>>money supply at a faster rate that BoJ injection, because the
dollars
> >>>>>>>earned from trade is not fully reconverted back into yens.  The
> >>>>>>
> >>>drainage
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>>>>from yen into dollars is consitently at a ratio of over 10 to 1,
with
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>>the trade surplus running at $20 billion a month and the Boj buying
> >>>>>>
> > $2
> >
> >>>>>>>billion at peak intervention.
> >>>>>>>Comment:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>I just spent 30 minutes going through Bank of Japan monetary
> >>>>>>
> >>>statistics.
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>>>>Here is a summary of what they show:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>1.  Japan's Monetary Base (in 100 mn. yen) increased by 454,986
> >>>>>>
> > between
> >
> >>>>>>>end-1996 and end-May 2003.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>2.  Japan's holdings of Gold and Foreign Exchange increased by
($mn.)
> >>>>>>>323,731 during the same period.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>3.  Converted at end-period $/Yen exchange rates, this is
equivalent
> >>>>>>
> >>>(in
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>>>>100 mn. yen) to 389,855 - or 85.7% of the Monetary Base increase.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>These statistics do not seem to support your analysis.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>Gunnar
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>  ----- Original Message -----
> >>>>>>>  From: Henry C.K. Liu <mailto:hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>>>>>>  To: bjm@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:bjm@xxxxxxxxx> ; pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>>>>>>  <mailto:pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> ; gang8@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>>>>>>  <mailto:gang8@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>>>>>>  Sent: Tuesday, June 24, 2003 11:20 AM
> >>>>>>>  Subject: [gang8] Re: Is Bernanke Behind The Rallies? Query to
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>Barkley
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>  Basil:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>  The reason is the Japanese trade surplus denominated in dollars.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>With
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>  the BoJ increasing the yen money supply, the new yen cannot find
> >>>>>>
> >>>its
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>>>>  way
> >>>>>>>  into the yen economy because of a liquidity trap caused by zero
> >>>>>>>  interest
> >>>>>>>  rate. With the BoJ pushing on a credit string, yen assets remain
> >>>>>>>  relatively constant despite of excess yen in the banking system.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>The
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>  trade surplus in dollars makes the Japanese trade sector a
> >>>>>>
> >>>mechanism
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>>>>  for
> >>>>>>>  turning yen input into dollar output, shrinking the yen economy
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>while
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>  expanding the dollar economy through a yen capital deficit into a
> >>>>>>>  dollar
> >>>>>>>  capital surplus.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>  When the BoJ buys dollars, it keeps the yen exchange rate low and
> >>>>>>>  increases the Jpanese trade surplus (in dollars), drainging the
> >>>>>>
> > yen
> >
> >>>>>>>  money supply at a faster rate that BoJ injection, because the
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>dollars
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>  earned from trade is not fully reconverted back into yens.  The
> >>>>>>>  drainage
> >>>>>>>  from yen into dollars is consitently at a ratio of over 10 to 1,
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>with
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>  the trade surplus running at $20 billion a month and the Boj
> >>>>>>
> > buying
> >
> >>>>>$2
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>  billion at peak intervention.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>  The fundamental flaw with the Japanese economy is not monetary or
> >>>>>>>  fiscal
> >>>>>>>  policy errors but its basic structure of relying on export for
> >>>>>>>  growth in
> >>>>>>>  the context of dollar hegemony.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>  Henry
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>  bjm@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
> >>>>>>>   > Henry
> >>>>>>>   > I am having trouble with this?
> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>   > How can BoJ buying dollars increase the yen MS but not yen
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>assets?
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>   > And how can a Japanese trade surplus shrink the yen MS? The
> >>>>>>
> >>>trade
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>>>>  surplus
> >>>>>>>   > must surely increase the yen MS as the BoJ buys dollars?
> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>   > Basil
> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>   > -----Original Message-----
> >>>>>>>   > From: Henry C.K. Liu [mailto :hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> >>>>>>>   > Sent: 20 June 2003 21:08
> >>>>>>>   > To: pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>>>>>>   > Subject: Re: Is Bernanke Behind The Rallies? Query to Barkley
> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>   > Not guite, Warren.  When the BoJ buys dollars, and it has been
> >>>>>>>  doing so
> >>>>>>>   > rather massively in the name of smoothing the rise of the yen
> >>>>>>
> > in
> >
> >>>>>>>  recent
> >>>>>>>   > months, it increases the yen money supply, but not the amount
> >>>>>>
> > of
> >
> >>>>>yen
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>   > assets.  This normally will "import" inflation to Japan from
> >>>>>>
> > the
> >
> >>>>>>>  US if
> >>>>>>>   > not for the Japanese trade surplus in dollars.  Japanese trade
> >>>>>>>  surplus
> >>>>>>>   > runs about $20 billion a month now and BoJ spends about $2 to
4
> >>>>>>>  billion
> >>>>>>>   > a month to shore up the dollar (no one knows exactly how much,
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>but
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>   > surely less than $20 billion a month). The trade surplus turns
> >>>>>>>  yen input
> >>>>>>>   > into dollar output thus shrinking the yen money supply and
> >>>>>>>  contracting
> >>>>>>>   > the yen economy.  The Japanese trade surplus in
> >>>>>>
> > dollars,together
> >
> >>>>>>>  with
> >>>>>>>   > the US capital account surplus in dollars, cause deflation in
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>Japan
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>>   > which in turn supports the Japanese trade surplus, which in
> >>>>>>
> > turn
> >
> >>>>>>>   > supports the US capital account surplus, thus causing
> >>>>>>
> > spiralling
> >
> >>>>>>>   > Japanese domestic deflation.
> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>   > Henry
> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>   > Warren Mosler wrote:
> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>   >>--- "Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> >>>>>>>   >>
> >>>>>>>   >>
> >>>>>>>   >>>My point is that lowering the exchange rate of the
> >>>>>>>   >>>yen will only
> >>>>>>>   >>>contribute to deflation because it increases the
> >>>>>>>   >>>dollar denominated
> >>>>>>>   >>>trade surplus which Japan must reinvest in dollar
> >>>>>>>   >>>assets, thus shrinking
> >>>>>>>   >>>the yen economy.
> >>>>>>>   >>
> >>>>>>>   >>
> >>>>>>>   >>The way I see it, when the boj buys $US, for example,
> >>>>>>>   >>it increases net yen denomimated financial assets of
> >>>>>>>   >>the non govt sector, just like any other form of net
> >>>>>>>   >>govt. spending.  It also increases its net savings of
> >>>>>>>   >>$US, so the process
> >>>>>>>   >>in fact could be said to be importing US 'inflation'
> >>>>>>>   >>or exporting Japan's 'deflation?'
> >>>>>>>   >>
> >>>>>>>   >>warren
> >>>>>>>   >>
> >>>>>>>   >>
> >>>>>>>   >>=====
> >>>>>>>   >>Warren Mosler, www.mosler.org
> >>>>>>>   >>c/o James River Capital Corp
> >>>>>>>   >>5007 Chandler's Wharf, Suite 201/202
> >>>>>>>   >>Christiansted, USVI  00820
> >>>>>>>   >>340-719-8813 office phone
> >>>>>>>   >>340-719-8804 Fax
> >>>>>>>   >>Primary email contact:  mosler@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>>>>>>   >>
> >>>>>>>   >>__________________________________
> >>>>>>>   >>Do you Yahoo!?
> >>>>>>>   >>SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month!
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> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>   >
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
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