A Calm before the Storm? By James Cumes, VictoryOverWant.org

[Wesley S Burt <wesburt@xxxxxxxx>]

To:  A few friends and numerous Devious Defenders of
the Status Quo (DDotSQ) on my copy list.

Hi Folks,

James Cumes' serious appraisal below of our present condition
is a welcome improvement on the logical vocabulary ping-pong
(is credit debt? or is debt money?) being played recently on list
Gang8.  Mr. Cumes, in his description of the symptoms of what
ails the US economy, and of the great benefits to all concerned
from curing what ails us; is in close agreement with the appraisals
of our present condition by John Gelles, Jack Dingler, Bill
Greider, Curtiss Priest, Ben Bernanke, Hugh Whinfrey, Arno Mong
Daastoel, Stephen Zarlenga, et al.

They all seem to desire, and agree upon, the ultimate condition,
which only a properly balanced decentralized (Classical) free
market economy can achieve.  That is a condition of: zero inflation,
 1% to 2% unemployment rate, public plus private capital
investment at 25% of GDP, no more under consumption or over
production, and disposable income at the same % of gross
income at all income levels.  Has this condition ever been realized
in our life time?  Yes, if you are old enough to have been paying
attention to the Japanese and Western Europe "economic
miracles" which followed World War II for about three or four
decades.

More recently, Japan and Western Europe have fallen off the
wagon and are regressing toward that mode of operation which
was known as "the English Disease" during the miraculous
decades and more recently known as the "Washington
Consensus."  That is, a condition of 2% to 10% inflation, 4% to
10% unemployment,  capital investment in the 15% to 20% of
GDP range, under consumption , and a widening gap between
rich and poor.

The US, as the world's current super power, is living proof
that a nation with enough population and resources can achieve
world dominion by applying the principles of a "properly
balanced decentralized (Classical) free market economy" to
its private sector only, while leaving its public sector to
languish as a "welfare State."  It is, after all, the Wealthy,
Healthy, Intelligent, and Powerful folks in any society
(WHIPs) who pay most of the taxes, earn most of the
income, make all of the important decisions, and believe
they should get most of the tax cuts.  But when are we
going to make a full public disclosure of the principles of
a "properly balanced decentralized (Classical) free market
economy" so the public will know what to vote for when
they get direct democracy on the Internet?

The centralized solutions of more government intervention
in the economy have all been tried, and found wanting
during the 20th century.  The status quo will not be
sustainable much longer, and there is not a handful of
viable options available.  There is only one technically valid
solution, and that is to apply the principles of a "properly
balanced decentralized (Classical) free market economy," in
equal measure, to both our public sector and our private sector.

Kind regards,

Wes Burt




~~~~~~~~~~~ Begin Janes Cumes' serious appraisal ~~~~~~~~~
From: "Schulte-baeuminghaus" <schulte.baeuminghaus@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <gang8@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, <pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sun, 22 Jun 2003 11:01:15 +0200
Subject: [gang8] A Calm before the Storm?

There is a curious - and menacing - stillness around the
world.  A calm before the storm?  There are terrifying
signs that it could be.

Mass slaughter continues. Terrorism, suicide bombings,
assassinations continue in the Middle East. Peace between
Israel and Palestine seems further away than ever.

Estimates are that more than three million people have
died in continuing conflict in the Congo. Elsewhere in Africa,
conflict, drought and untreated disease, hardly given a
thought in the "rich" world, bring a miserable death to many
thousands - men, women and children - every day.

Misery is widespread but governments are paralysed. The
Group of 7 or 8 does nothing except worry - as, indeed, they
should - about the demonstrations in the streets outside. The
same is true of the summits of the European Union,
preoccupied with disagreements over a new "constitution"
rather than deeper and more meaningfully urgent issues.
ASEAN countries are now showing concern about military
tyranny in Burma, as they should be; but do little about it
or anything else.

Afghanistan and Iraq may be quietly sinking back into
widespread, murderous conflict and anarchy.  Economic
uncertainty bedevils the world. It always does, in some
measure, but the crisis that threatens now could be deeper,
more long-lasting and more devastating to political and
strategic stability than anything we have known before.
Nuclear weaponry is proliferating.  Hatreds spread.

For the most part, governments - if they don't directly
inflame the environment of violence - simply hope that
things will get better. The New York stockmarket has been
showing some resilience. That gives hope - almost certainly
false, buoyed with the expectation that Chairman of the Fed
Greenspan will be forced to lower interest rates yet again to
try to lift investors' spirits.

Japan might be getting worse more slowly than before but
any genuine and lasting improvement seems still a good
way around the corner. Germany is still in deep trouble, with
high unemployment and the outlook bleak.  Is anyone doing
anything to retrieve the situation?

Not really and certainly not enough, so far as governments
are concerned.  The Italian Government is contemplating a
big public-investment infrastructure program. That is promising.
The Government of China is embarking on huge public programs
of transport and infrastructure investment which should make
their stability and growth less dependent on external trade,
especially with the United States.

Those are encouraging developments but they are, alone, much
too little and almost certainly much too late, to do the world
economy or major national economies - except probably China
- very much good.  On the academic side, William Greider has
begun advocating public investment to rescue our economic
fortunes; but he is still a lone voice in the wilderness. A lone
voice? Not entirely.

As early as the beginning of 2002 - eighteen months ago -
Victory Over Want was established to initiate a democratic
process for international public investment to meet the short-
term crisis of recession and the long-term crisis of chronic
poverty.

If governments would not act - and they have since confirmed
their incapacity to do anything useful - then action must be
taken through the processes of direct democracy.  We, the
people, must show governments the way.  The resources are
there. The processes are there. All we need is the will to get
together and work together on worldwide, Marshall-Plan-like
programs of carefully planned and implemented public
investment and we can resolve the complex of crises
confronting the world economy and the world society.
In this way, we will solve the economic crisis and, if we work
together and build together, we can solve our political,
strategic and, yes, our terrorist crises at the same time.
Multilateral public investment, managed well within a broad
vision, is a practical and relatively simple way of working our
way out of what is, at the moment, our near-despair. It will
stimulate private investment. It will put the workless back into
employment. It will revive the wholesale markets and the
consumer markets. It will revive the stockmarkets too.
Everyone will benefit, the rich and poor alike.
Every continent will benefit.  It will be globalisation of the
best possible kind.  Every country, every society will have
more certainty, more hope, better prospects for a more
comfortable life, with more liberty and more opportunities
for the pursuit of happiness.  All we need is a revolution in
our mental attitudes - a return to the sensible policies of
investing for the public good, for the good of everyone, not
in one or two national markets, but right around the world.
We have the resources, human and physical. We have the
finances - all we need is to mobilise and manage them in
ways much more meaningfully and securely than we have
in the past few decades.

Victory Over Want (VOW) pointed out the way ahead
eighteen months ago. It produced a "Road Map" if you like -
a highly realistic highway, free of violence, fair to all, for the
good of all.  Let's adopt that "Road Map" and set out on a
highway that could make the 21st Century the greatest
century of all for all those - human and other - who inhabit
our presently deeply troubled planet.


James Cumes
http://VictoryOverWant.org
http://www.crystaldreamspub.com/bios/authors/A-E/cumes_j.htm






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