Re: [A-List] US economy: Soros vs. dollar

["J. Barkley Rosser, Jr." <rosserjb@xxxxxxx>]

     Maybe that is what the Fed wants.  But as near as I can
tell the Bushites really do want a substantial decline of the
dollar.  Snow is a "Main Street" businessman, not a Wall
Streeter.  Karl Rove has read the studies that argue that what
matters most for presidential (re)elections is the growth rate
of the economy in the second quarter of the election year.
All Bush policies are therefore trained on that very narrow
result and damn the rest.  Getting W reelected is all that
matters.  That this is going to be done by Robinsonian
"beggar thy neighbor policies" does not matter to this crowd
(and I just saw a report forecasting that a 20% decline of the
dollar would boost US GDP growth in 2004 by 1.5%, probably
enough to do the trick).
Barkley Rosser
----- Original Message -----
From: "Gary Santos" <evs@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: "EGroup TheNewForum" <TheNewForum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; "EGroup PKT"
<pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 21, 2003 11:20 AM
Subject: Re: [A-List] US economy: Soros vs. dollar


> Michael,
>
> I think the Fed wants the ECB, Canada, etc. to step in and, together, stop
> the Euro rise. But, will the ECB step in? It's a drama that will just
unfold
> before our eyes.
>
> Soros wants others to come in. He said that he is in. His cost is 1.18 or
> below. He wants others to buy the dollar above 1.18 or stop selling Euros
> thereby lowering his exposure. Soros will have to put in $200 billion over
a
> year to hold it at present levels for one year. He will be playing an
> increasing amount of Euro as time passes. I wonder how much he has cashed
> out already?
>
> What did Henry say? That the currency market is ruling over the US-EU
> economies -- affecting the whole world in the process?
>
> Gary
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>
> To: <a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 21, 2003 8:18 PM
> Subject: [A-List] US economy: Soros vs. dollar
>
>
> Soros bets against the dollar
>
> David Teather in New York
> Wednesday May 21, 2003
> The Guardian
>
> George Soros, the billionaire investor dubbed "the man who broke the
pound",
> yesterday added to the mounting pressure on the dollar when he admitted
> publicly he was betting against the currency.
>
> In an interview with US cable channel CNBC, Mr Soros disclosed that he had
> recently begun to sell. "I now have a short position against the dollar,"
he
> said. "I have listened to what the secretary of the treasury is telling
me.
> Who am I to stand in the way?
>
> "We continue to sell the US dollar against the euro, the Canadian dollar,
> the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and gold."
>
> Mr Soros played a significant role in forcing the pound from the European
> exchange rate mechanism in 1992 when he bet against sterling. His firm was
> said to have made $1bn after the pound was ejected.
>
> US treasury secretary John Snow signalled a policy shift at the weekend,
> suggesting he was at ease with the recent slide in the dollar. He said the
> currency's 20% decline against the euro over the past year was "really
> fairly modest".
>
> That was interpreted as a reversal of the White House's strong dollar
policy
> and an indication that the treasury will not be shoring up the currency by
> buying in the open market. The euro was yesterday trading a fraction below
> Monday's four-year high of $1.1738, just below its January 1999 launch
> price. The dollar fell further against the yen after the Bank of Japan
said
> it would ease monetary policy again. The BoJ has spent billions to halt
the
> yen's rise against the dollar.
>
> Mr Soros was fiercely critical of the White House policy shift. "It's a
> beggar thy neighbour policy," he said. "I think [Mr Snow] was somewhat
> irresponsible by talking down the dollar."
>
> He said the policy shift was an attempt to stimulate the US economy at the
> expense of other countries. "This administration is happy to hurt France
and
> Germany but that won't help the US very much. It will make US exports more
> competitive, but to whom are we going to export?"
>
> He joined another billionaire, Warren Buffett, in a stinging attack on the
> White House tax cut plan centred on the ending of tax on dividends. The
> senate is expected to approve the tax cuts by next week.
>
> "The administration is basically using the recession to redistribute
income
> to the wealthy," Mr Soros said. Mr Buffett dubbed the cuts "voodoo
> economics" in yesterday's Washington Post.
>
> Forecasters are increasingly concerned about the Bush administration's
> stewardship of the economy. A quarterly survey of economists yesterday
from
> the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia found them cutting full year
> forecasts for GDP growth from 2.5% to 2.2%.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>