Re: Greenspan' and Derivatives

["Gary Santos" <evs@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

http://www.news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/03/15/war15.x
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The plan is to pause the war after a few days to allow Iraqis to overthrow
Saddam. Failing that no urban warfare will be attempted. They will just
starve Baghdad. If you ask me, this is a plan whose ramifications are
unpredictable and fraught with drama and danger.

Full article below:

Allied plan gives Iraqis chance to topple Saddam
By Patrick Bishop in Kuwait
(Filed: 15/03/2003)


The war in Iraq is expected to be a two-stage operation with a pause to
allow time for Saddam Hussein to be toppled by his own people.

Allied planners expect only limited resistance in the south of the country
when the main thrust is finally launched by British and American forces
currently completing their deployment in Kuwait.

Troops are under orders to do everything to minimise military casualties and
damage to civilian infrastructure in order to consolidate goodwill and apply
further pressure on the Baghdad regime to turn on Saddam and remove the need
for an attack on the capital.

A senior British Army officer said: "No one's going to go charging into
Baghdad. Fighting in urban areas is a hugely risky business." If the regime
does not fall under the shock of the initial assault, a stand-off around
Baghdad is "a very likely scenario".

There are high hopes that demoralised and ill-equipped Iraqi troops barring
the road to Baghdad will surrender at the first opportunity and that
civilians will welcome the invaders as liberators. "Certainly in the south
the Iraqi army are not that well equipped and their resolve to fight does
not appear great," said the officer. "But we are still prepared for some
resistance."

Planners have drawn up "hard" and "soft" options to take account of the
level of fight the Iraqis show.

"If you can bring about the defeat of the Iraqi army with a minimum amount
of destruction to civilian infrastructure, mosques and even the Iraqi army
itself then the second phase of post conflict infrastructure is so much
easier." The intention is to hand over to the Iraqis "a basically
functioning country without creating a legacy of hate".

The advancing forces will look for every opportunity to bypass Iraqi
formations and arrange local ceasefires and to demonstrate their goodwill
towards civilians.

"It's about not picking a fight unduly but reserving the full right to use
maximum force if problems arise," he said. "That's firmly understood in the
British division. It's a more subtle approach. It all comes down to the end
state, which is achieving regime change. Bringing the Iraqi people on board
is a very good way to do that."

The British forces will be engaged in and around the major southern city of
Basra. Their responsibilities are expected to include securing the Gulf port
of Umm Qasr, a major oil terminal.

Capturing the huge and easily exploited southern Iraq oil fields is seen as
another key element in the Allied plan to force Saddam out.

"The military planning takes full account of the economic significance of
the oilfields for Iraq's future," said the source. "If you can get [them]
intact that's a huge pyschological message to flash to Baghdad. Sixty per
cent of the oil comes from the south."

The Allied planning appears heavily weighted towards an incremental strategy
that applies mounting pressure and allows time for Saddam's henchmen to
decide their self-interest lies in risking a move against him. "This is all
about getting someone to tip him over," said the source.

Resistance is expected to grow as forces approach the capital and encounter
Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard units.

Once at the gates of the capital there is no intention to fall in with
Saddam's declared plan for a bloody showdown in the streets of Baghdad.
Allied troops are likely to hold back and wait for the collapse of the
regime.