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The Challenge to Predict 2003



All that Henry Liu asked for, especially massive
federal credit to pay for the necessary redirection
of economic energies from zero-sum games to
cooperation among firms and nations, (aimed at
solving the problems of immediate scarcity and
long term threats to us all,) makes a great deal
of sense. 
 
The Bush tax cut Henry would skip may make
more problematical finding the massive credit
to pay for all we need -- repaying that credit
may be harder with lower taxes.
 
On the other hand, the tax cut might lead to a
signicant reduction in the foreign price of the
dollar. A lower dollar and lower taxes might
combine to bring about Henry's better world
sooner than otherwise.
 
Henry's spending advice is good. We must
identify the main opposition to it. Is it those
who fear taxes in relation to such spending?
Or is those who fear full employment and the
end of poverty? 
 
So far, our enemies talk of "tax and spend"
progressives. They never tell the public their
real aim is "an army of the unemployed" to
keep labor in bondage.  That may be their
aim, but until we offer them lower taxes
why assume they are so rotten?
 
With China boasting it is the now the leading
producer of many required products, and yet
maintaining an outward dedication to fair and
full employment, what role will that nation
play in 2003 -- relative to Henry's list?
 
Will it try to fully employ at fair wages all its
millions of people?  Or will it see the path to
military parity more easily reached by keeping
the pressure on its people to compete and
excell in all things scientific?
 
My guess is that in 2003 neither Bush nor
China's leaders will opt for more cooperative
approaches to full employment here or there.
 
Yet, war against terror will help rationalize
some of the financial systems necessary to
defend all nations. That rationalization may
force us all to take steps to reform global
trade in favor of economic growth to reduce
the sources of terrorism.
 
John Gelles
 
 


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