Examining policy rules and values in the light of time series techniques

["John Gelles" <johng@xxxxxxxxxx>]

SUBJECT: Examining policy rules and values in the light of
time series techniques - WAS - Re: Letter form Bob Solow

    IF we accept the possibility that human habit, (and similar
    patterns observed in history attributed to the dead hand
    of the past,) is a useful predicter most of the time, and that
    even rare earthquakes may one day be found out, (for
    better warning systems than now exist,) THEN the ergodic/
    non-ergodic dichotomy may prove to be less than some
    of us think.

    The dichotomy is of some use in arguing for a values-
    based economic policy -- one that demands full employ-
    ment, high wages, endless attention to doing right by our
    neighbors, etc., whether or not such goals are consistent
    with animal-like or insect-like economies, or with other
    struggles that seem to be guided by consistent biological
    rules.
                One only has to say that no rules are certain--
                therefore--good values are worth fighting for.

    Rather than focus on the ergodic dichotomy, I like to
    focus on "debt and taxes as" one type of foundation for
    a monetaty system of production, and "public spending
    and private saving" as an opposite type of foundation.

    The latter type sees public spending of fiat money into
    circulation and private saving of that money to prevent
    hyperinflation until revaluation of savings by law may be
    necessary.

    By overcoming the neo-liberal insistence that labor be
    forever underpaid and in debt, and avoiding taxes that
    drive voters into the neo-liberal political support system,
    the preferred foundation, above, may have a chance of
    making this a better world in spite of the fact that
    non-ergodically speaking it all can come apart in a day.

        John Gelles