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Re: The Compensated Price



Dan, your reply indicates to me that you don't have the foggiest idea what Social Credit is all about, in particular the A + B Theorem.  I'm not saying this to be insulting or patronizing.  You have often expressed a general sympathy for the idea, as I have found through research in several years of usenet archives.  It simply brings home to me the extreme difficulty in expressing the concept, even to one who is sympathetic.  If we can't get the idea across to sympathizers, how in the world can we expect to get it across to skeptics?  I've experimented with a number of approaches and haven't hit the right formula yet.  I've never converted anyone, though I'm still trying.
 
There are all sorts of problems in this world that need to be resolved.  Social Credit goes beyond the "money" problem.  It is a question of priority, as Douglas said.  It is difficult to address other problems of a social nature until the money problem is resolved.  Then we can move on.
 
The A + B Theorem is profound but tough to grasp, that's for sure.  I'm coming to the realization that it cannot be understood without a thorough grounding in fundamentals, and that especially includes the fundamentals of orthodox theory, even though we may not agree with them, for our theory stands in counterpoise to orthodox theory.  Our task is made all the more difficult because most "credentialed" economists are not especially well read in economics.  They don't have to be.  Most of them are employed as statisticians and information gatherers.  So there's not a common ground for discussion even among economists.
 
I've inserted some comments below.
 
Bill
----------
From: "Dan Parker" <dan.parker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: The Compensated Price
Sent: 10/16/2002 12:12:37 PM
  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> -----Original Message-----
> From: william_b_ryan@xxxxxxxxxx [mailto:william_b_ryan@xxxxxxxxxx]
>
>
> Dan, it isn't just a matter of approximating purchasing power
> with costs.  We are talking about effective demand, the
> spending from income that offsets the costs of production.
Good point William, but I would suggest the free market approach
where if demand falls, production falls, hence the costs of the
production fall.
----------
[Ryan]  There is a difference between real demand and financial demand.  There is a difference between costs and purchasing power being paid to consumers during the course of production.  Financial demand at the point of retail is a limiting function of the purchasing being power being paid to consumers because of the limiting capacity to consume in the real sense.  We can sleep in only one bed at a time, so for most of us there's no need or desire to purchase more than one bed.  The A + B Theorem asserts that the costs and purchasing power being paid to consumers diverge over time, with purchasing power falling in respect to costs through the displacement of labor.  Costs in the financial sense correspond to productive potential in the real sense.  Social Credit asserts that consumer purchasing power should be augmented with dividends, so that if consumers so choose, they can fully call upon that increasing potential. 
 
Should consumers not choose to fully call upon that potential - and that should be their right, they should have the right to choose leisure - that potential shouldn't be scrapped and wasted, as continually happens now.  We are surrounded by the carcasses of failed projects.  Nor should it be used to produce things that consumers don't want (for export or war or whatever) so they can get the money to get the things they do want.  Retail discounts will make up the difference, in the financial sense, so that the potential is allowed to increase without limit.  As it does, the ratio of inputs actually being utilized - labor and natural resources - is decreasing to outputs--that which is actually being produced and consumed. 
 
It is the path to sustainability.
----------
However, I don't think demand will ever fall,
although it would be nice if 'growth' happened in less materialistic
directions in some cases (both for the environment and for the
person).
I don't think Japan is a good example in that consumer
psychology is hampered by fear of a future shortage of
money (scarcity mentality) and the exponential driver in
the current system, and Japans capturing of much of it,
drove prices so out of whack, that they still aren't sensible
in many cases.
It seems to me you are saying here that people have
more money than they want to spend, and that lowering
prices will solve this.  However, this would give them
more money yet than they would need to spend.  I am
sure I am misreading you here.
----------
[Ryan]  It isn't that consumers have more money than they want to spend, but that they see no need to purchase all the things that their money can purchase.  A fraction of their money can purchase all that they want.  We are not talking about specific consumers but the community as a whole.  The difference between what they are receiving and what they are spending is presumably a reflection of the community's increasing wealth.  The trouble is, the totality (actually, more than the totality) of the money they are receiving is being charged against the fraction of productive capacity they are consuming, which means that the remaining fraction is continually going out of business, since they cannot recover their costs of production.  It explains why, with technological progress, there is an ever increasing variety of things being made available for purchase and enjoyment, which is good, but the paradox of poverty amidst plenty never goes away.
 
The Gesellist solution is to require them to spend, and if they will not spend, take it from them and give it to people who will spend.  The trouble with Gesellism - in all its variants including Keynesianism - is that even if they spend all they receive, there still is the other matter revealed by A + B:  the money the community is receiving is falling in respect to the costs of production.
 
So really two factors are interellated:  first, that income is falling in respect to the costs of production, and second, that the spending from income is falling with the decreasing "propensity to consume."
 
It is this second factor that is addressed by retail discounts.
---------- 
My main issue was with compensated price was the
government fixing prices as a percentage of profits,
and how this would be hard to enforce.
----------
[Ryan]  The compensated price is an accounting adjustment at the point of retail, which allows goods that cost X to be sold profitably for X - Y.
----------
However, I think a fundamental change in economics
will follow the line of continual adjustment with
experiments or prototypes providing feedback for
further changes.
----------
[Ryan]  This might actually not be far from the truth.  Despite our intellectualizing, change will come ultimately from practical necessity.  I am reminded that Douglas said it is the bankers who will implement Social Credit.  They are in the position to most competently accomplish it, in any case.  Attached is a recent article from the Financial Times regarding the situation in Japan.
----------
Social credit provides some good
understanding, as does binary economics etc, It's
great to have experts in each area, but my preference
is to educate about how the current system works,
and speak of the various proposals offered as
solutions.  I really like some of the fundamental
concepts of Social Credit, such as decentralization,
and freedom of the individual.
rgds
Dan Parker
 
 


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Title: Financial Times

Financial Times

 

Beyond interest rates

By Eric Lonergan

Published: September 9 2002 20:40

 

The US Federal Reserve should start considering policy alternatives to cutting interest rates. The current global recovery is almost entirely dependent on US demand - specifically, US consumer spending. Interest rate cuts are facilitating this process by encouraging house price inflation and credit growth.

 

Alan Greenspan, Fed chairman, is explicit about this process. In his recent testimony to Congress, he argued: "Mortgage rates remain at historically low levels and thus should continue to fuel reasonably strong housing demand and, through equity extraction, to support consumer spending as well."

 

Is it really optimal to prop up the global economy through an explicit weakening of the US household balance sheet? The most palatable alternatives require European and Japanese initiative and are not within the Fed's control. Moreover, there are considerable institutional barriers to progress in both Europe and Japan. Fiscal stimulus in Europe is hamstrung by the stability pact. Monetary stimulus is similarly hindered. Despite near-stagnant growth in domestic demand within the eurozone and six months of currency strength, the European Central Bank has been reluctant to cut rates. Japan's problems are deeper because it has exhausted orthodox forms of demand management.

 

It is impractical and imprudent for America to wait for European or Japanese action. It is also imprudent for the Fed to encourage increased leverage, house price inflation and home equity withdrawal. So what are the alternatives? A starting-point is to look at Japan, where monetary policy alternatives to interest rates are openly debated.

 

The most frequently discussed options include the purchase of longer-dated government bonds, or private sector securities such as equities. These are options the Fed is likely to have looked at and rightly dismissed. The Bank of Japan's aggressive programme of government bond purchasing by means of monetary-base expansion has increased liquidity in the financial system with negligible impact on the real economy. Purchasing equities amounts to renewed distortion of asset market pricing, which policy should seek to avoid.

 

A consensus is starting to emerge that the most direct monetary solution to Japan's problems would be for the BoJ to finance private sector debt repayment. If the BoJ repaid 30 per cent of all household and corporate debts outstanding, financed by monetary base expansion, there would be a recovery in domestic demand. Equivalently, and perhaps more equitably, the BoJ could simply post a cheque for the Yen equivalent of, say, $10,000 to every household. If this has little impact, they could send another one. Milton Friedman, the economist, called this a helicopter drop of money.

 

Are these plausible options for the Fed? A helicopter drop of money has many advantages over current policy. It is difficult to believe that cash transfers to the household sector would not stimulate demand. Furthermore, a cash transfer or debt repayment stimulates private sector demand by strengthening, not weakening, the household balance sheet.

 

When monetary policy takes this route the line between monetary and fiscal policy is blurred. What is the difference between a tax rebate and a cheque from the Fed? There are two crucial differences. One involves an expansion of the monetary base - printing money; the other involves issuing government debt. More important, monetary-base expansion is controlled by the central bank, not politicians: the essential tenet of an independent monetary authority is that only central banks should be free to write cheques at will.

 

How far-fetched are these proposals? Federal Reserve Board economists recently argued that when inflation approaches zero, interest-rate cuts and fiscal policy should be more aggressive than baseline forecasts would typically suggest because the downside risks of policy failure are so great. This logic explains current fiscal and monetary policy thinking in the US and is consistent with further and aggressive interest-rate cuts, which many economists are now predicting.

 

This is likely to remain the favoured approach. But post-interest-rate monetary policy is already at the heart of the current debate in Japan. The Federal Open Market Committee itself discussed at its January meeting the monetary options should interest rate cuts fail. What about the ECB?

 

Central bankers often pride themselves on unpopularity. And so it should be during booms or rising inflation. But in deflation, this principle should be turned on its head: they should print money and be popular.

 

We are not yet facing global deflation. Conventional monetary and fiscal policies in the US are having their desired effect. But the mechanism used to stimulate US demand is neither desirable nor sustainable. The Fed and central banks globally should rethink.

 

The writer is head of global macro research at Cazenove & Co

 



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