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Financial Times Beyond interest
rates By Eric Lonergan Published: September 9
2002 20:40 The US Federal Reserve
should start considering policy alternatives to cutting interest rates. The
current global recovery is almost entirely dependent on US demand -
specifically, US consumer spending. Interest rate cuts are facilitating this
process by encouraging house price inflation and credit growth. Alan Greenspan, Fed
chairman, is explicit about this process. In his recent testimony to Congress,
he argued: "Mortgage rates remain at historically low levels and thus
should continue to fuel reasonably strong housing demand and, through equity
extraction, to support consumer spending as well." Is it really optimal to
prop up the global economy through an explicit weakening of the US household
balance sheet? The most palatable alternatives require European and Japanese
initiative and are not within the Fed's control. Moreover, there are
considerable institutional barriers to progress in both Europe and Japan.
Fiscal stimulus in Europe is hamstrung by the stability pact. Monetary stimulus
is similarly hindered. Despite near-stagnant growth in domestic demand within
the eurozone and six months of currency strength, the European Central Bank has
been reluctant to cut rates. Japan's problems are deeper because it has
exhausted orthodox forms of demand management. It is impractical and
imprudent for America to wait for European or Japanese action. It is also
imprudent for the Fed to encourage increased leverage, house price inflation
and home equity withdrawal. So what are the alternatives? A starting-point is
to look at Japan, where monetary policy alternatives to interest rates are
openly debated. The most frequently
discussed options include the purchase of longer-dated government bonds, or
private sector securities such as equities. These are options the Fed is likely
to have looked at and rightly dismissed. The Bank of Japan's aggressive
programme of government bond purchasing by means of monetary-base expansion has
increased liquidity in the financial system with negligible impact on the real
economy. Purchasing equities amounts to renewed distortion of asset market
pricing, which policy should seek to avoid. A consensus is starting
to emerge that the most direct monetary solution to Japan's problems would be
for the BoJ to finance private sector debt repayment. If the BoJ repaid 30 per
cent of all household and corporate debts outstanding, financed by monetary
base expansion, there would be a recovery in domestic demand. Equivalently, and
perhaps more equitably, the BoJ could simply post a cheque for the Yen
equivalent of, say, $10,000 to every household. If this has little impact, they
could send another one. Milton Friedman, the economist, called this a
helicopter drop of money. Are these plausible
options for the Fed? A helicopter drop of money has many advantages over
current policy. It is difficult to believe that cash transfers to the household
sector would not stimulate demand. Furthermore, a cash transfer or debt
repayment stimulates private sector demand by strengthening, not weakening, the
household balance sheet. When monetary policy
takes this route the line between monetary and fiscal policy is blurred. What
is the difference between a tax rebate and a cheque from the Fed? There are two
crucial differences. One involves an expansion of the monetary base - printing
money; the other involves issuing government debt. More important,
monetary-base expansion is controlled by the central bank, not politicians: the
essential tenet of an independent monetary authority is that only central banks
should be free to write cheques at will. How far-fetched are
these proposals? Federal Reserve Board economists recently argued that when
inflation approaches zero, interest-rate cuts and fiscal policy should be more
aggressive than baseline forecasts would typically suggest because the downside
risks of policy failure are so great. This logic explains current fiscal and
monetary policy thinking in the US and is consistent with further and
aggressive interest-rate cuts, which many economists are now predicting. This is likely to
remain the favoured approach. But post-interest-rate monetary policy is already
at the heart of the current debate in Japan. The Federal Open Market Committee
itself discussed at its January meeting the monetary options should interest rate
cuts fail. What about the ECB? Central bankers often
pride themselves on unpopularity. And so it should be during booms or rising
inflation. But in deflation, this principle should be turned on its head: they
should print money and be popular. We are not yet facing
global deflation. Conventional monetary and fiscal policies in the US are
having their desired effect. But the mechanism used to stimulate US demand is
neither desirable nor sustainable. The Fed and central banks globally should
rethink. The writer is head of
global macro research at Cazenove & Co |
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