Re: flow or stock?

["Davies, Daniel" <daniel.davies@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

 >>> No.  You can calculate anything you want about the future -- what I am
saying is by

'information" you mean that the potential buyer  (the bull) and seller (the
bear) are both (or either one) has statistical reliable (in the statistical
sense that you are actuarially comfortable with your future estimates of
cash flows going into the future not only for days but months and years)
<<<

Just to push this point (which, like Christian, I must confess to be less
than sure of), I am intrigued by your use of the word "actuarially" in this
passage.  Would you accept that an actuary is able to make statistically
reliable projections of the cash flows of an insurance company going out
into the future at least as long as the average term of a life assurance
policy?  And if so, then what are our reasons for believing that, say, the
retail business is any less ergodic than the life assurance business?

Btw, there is decent evidence that your suggested trading strategy for a
"supernormal" investor (buying lows and selling highs), or something fairly
similar, does in fact produce supernormal returns.

dd


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