Le Pen - Europe's highest austerity price so far

[Sven R Larson <larson@xxxxxx>]

I must say I woke up with a bit of shock this morning, learning about Le Pen's
formidable success in the first round of the French presidential election process.
(Chirac got 20% of the votes, Le Pen 17% and incumbent prime minister, the socialist
Jospin gathered only 16%.) Irrespective of whether he wins the second round or not (it
is a two-step process, the second of which is a final between the two frontrunners of
the first) the political consequences will go far beyond the borders of France.

Le Pen has now qualified himself for the second, final round of the election. Until now
every French presidential election since 1969 under the fifth republic's constitution
has contained at least one socialist candidate. This time the incumbent neo-Gaullist
president, Chirac, will have to run for the final against Europe's - cynically speaking
- most enduring right-wing extremist, J M Le Pen. Le Pen is more aggressive than
Austria's Haider, he's politically more established and skilled than Berlusconi, and
because he's French he is also the biggest single threat against the European
unification process. He concluded his victorious first-round election night with the
following message to Brussels: "Au revoir".

Right-wingers are on the march all over Europe. The pattern is the same everywhere: the
socialists or social democrats who said they were the strongest defenders of the poor,
the workers whose daily lives were to be made easier by a generous public sector, have
pursued harsh government cutbacks all across the continent in order to squeeze their
economies through the Maastricht needle's eye. I've warned before that this process was
under way, in particular after Haider's party emerged as a strong player in Austria.
France has shown that this process will continue, and it should be clear to everyone by
now that the left - even mid-stream liberals - cannot play any significant role in
European politics until they credibly can explain to Europeans how they are going to
restore the welfare systems they so carefully worked to dismantle. Le Pen and his
extreme right-wingers do not have to defend their agenda on this matter: the the mere
fact that the socialists and social democrats have let crime rise, the public sector
deteriorate AND taxes go up is enough for voters to trust new promise makers.

Le Pen's success is more alarming than that of Berlusconi and Haider even if he will not
beat Chirac in the final round. A likely outcome of the current election process is that
Le Pen ends as prime minister instead, which does not deprive him of the chance to stir
things up. He has vowed to hold referenda on a variety of issues already this summer -
one of which is whether France should leave the currency union. It may very well be that
the French wake up from the shock of having voted Le Pen in as either president or prime
minister, and therefore will do their best to preserve the fragile EU institutions that
have emerged over the past decade. But other, "core" issues of the far right will most
probably be fully accepted by the French. And that is a high, incomprehensibly high
price for a democracy to pay for the kind of perpetual fiscal austerity that has plagued
Europe for years and years.

It is certainly true that other factors contribute to the far-right swing among European
voters. One is undoubtedly the not very democratic superstructure that the EU has become
(and continues to develop). But we must not forget that one of the key components of
this integration process is a currency union the very foundation of which is the world's
first constitution that effectively mandates fiscal austerity. Although the individual
voter in Europe does not understand the theoretical fine print of this, he sure knows
that he suffers once the demands of that constitution make themselves heard in his own
life as unemployment, lost economic opportunities, higher taxes, eroded public sector
services and less predictable public insurance systems.

Until Keynesianism is restored in Europe's political process, until the fiscal
straitjacket of the Maastricht treaty is removed - until then rightwingers will keep
marching and gain influence.

The next scene is the group of new EU member states, waiting on the Union's doorstep.
Poland, the Checz republic and Hungary may very well revert to right-wing extremism once
the promised membership benefits translate into fiscal hardships.

God help Europe,
/srl

--
Sven R Larson
Ph.D.; Assistant professor of economics
Department of Social Sciences, 22.2
Roskilde University
PB 260
DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
http://www.ruc.dk/english/