The US and China and Other Superpowers

["John Gelles" <johng@xxxxxxxxxx>]

        It may be that PKT will refuse to distribute this -- that
        is PKT will "moderate" or filter it out.

        They may be right to do so. Ric has his headaches.
        But Hank Liu is "wrong" (IMO) with his version of past
        and future forces and events. He must be answered.
        If you need a copy of his piece, email me back and
        I'll see what I can do.

        [In re-reading my words, I made a few changes.]

        John


        ----- Original Message -----
From: John Gelles <johng@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: Post Keynesian Thought <pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, April 18, 2002 5:36 PM
Subject: China, Etc.


    I hope James Galbraith will give us his take on
    the US and China in the current effort to make
    globalization serve the nations and peoples it
    affects. He is in a position to know what these
    two continental nations, located well to be
    natural friends, ought to be doing -- and what
    they may be doing.

    It is obvious to me the USA will share economic,
    political and military power with China (including
    a happy relationship between two great blue water
    navies) in the decades ahead. By the end of the
    century, differences between political elites of
    both nations will be no more than those within
    them -- unless China cannot keep up with the
    other great continental powers -- for no particular
    reason.

    My facts are simple: There are five great continental
    superpowers: USA, Europe (incl. UK), Russia,
    China and India. They have to live in peace and
    make the earth better and better.

    There is no rivalry of significance left, such as the
    ones that bathed the world in blood in the 20th
    century.

    Of course Europe, the USA, Russia, India and China
    will not be the same. One or another  power will have
    more clout of one kind or another. But their common
    interest will be to keep world war and the end of life on
    earth from happening. It will be a MAD sane world.
    There will be athletic, scientific and cultural competition.
    All will be winners.


    As to which nation will first use Keynesian insights to
    separate spending from taxing -- that will be a matter
    of chance. But we can be sure capitalism will soon
    sponsor "spending enough" to support democratic
    prosperity.  Debt will be redefined in the light of
    production goals for the things earth needs -- not in
    terms of mortgages on old stuff. Debt may even be
    completely married to equity.

    There is a current problem: militant and terrorististic
    Islamic potentials, relative to their Secular, Christian,
    Indian and Chinese neighbors. The Ottoman Empire is
    gone. There appears to be no need replace it with a
    continental power on the scale of the big 5 above.

    Great things in the 22nd Century from South America
    and Africa may come along.  Or, by then, a functioning
    UN may have assumed a major political role -- and the
    big 5 will be merged into its nucleus.

    Why such gross speculation?  Because Hank Liu has
    an incoherent view that, if even half-realistic, would
    amount to a doomesday forecast.

    John Gelles -- Rooting for Bush and Cheney so far.