Re: Anti-EU demonstration in Sweden

["Hugh Whinfrey" <econ@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Henry writes:

>I would be interested to know from those who are informed about northern
>Europe, such as Hugh Whinfrey or others, if this is unique to Sweden, or are
>there general centrifugal forces at work against regionalization.

The main paradigm at work here outside
the status quo is the anarchists vs. the neo-Nazis.

They not infrequently engage each other in little scuffles,
and folks following along at home find it all quite amusing.
In other words it's not on the serious threat level in
terms of shaping national agendas, although it does
have the potential to bring about some serious but
isolated incidents of violence.  The gang war in
Denmark between two rival biker gangs is a bigger
deal by an order of magnitude than the activities of
either of these two extremist groups.

Looking down the road a couple of decades or so,
it wouldn't be all that unusual for one of these two
groups to eventually become 'mainstream', although
while it happened to the Greens, you're looking at
cases here with these 2 groups that have much less
universal appeal.

The neo-Nazis were probably ignored by the
authorities in Sweden for longer than they should
have been, and it's generally acknowledged that
the authorities made a mistake there. I've heard
tell that one of the more prominent neo-Nazi figures
in Sweden is actually Black - so I'd be careful
about inferring too much about what they stand
for other than posing a proverbial anti-establishment
alternative.

Plus, I think one of the results of that criticism of
the authorities is precisely what triggered this
thread, i.e. that the authorities are determined
to not get caught in the same manner again by
another fringe group, hence there are some
good odds that they are overreacting a bit here.

Anti-EU sentiment tends to be a standard plank
for 'loyal oppositionists'. In other words, much of it
is so superficial that the folks who would bother
to turn out for a political rally to support the cause
would be the same folks who would turn out for
any other cause that the 'establishment' could be
demonized for, and it wouldn't be much more than
a social event for the 'in' people at that.

I think the real danger that these folks on the fringes,
who are really committed to anti-establishment activism,
pose isn't to the EU, but rather that they might link
up with the anti-globalisation folks as per Seattle,
etc. and start to add some backbone and focus
to what has clearly become a more 'hip' cause than
being anti-EU. It appears in fact to be happening already,
given the vast and diverse array of groups right across
the political spectrum who are allies in those protests.
And at least in Europe, those protests are clearly
anti-American in nature, hence, all in all, that seems
to be where it is headed.

Hugh