Re: the share held by banks

["J. Barkley Rosser, Jr." <rosserjb@xxxxxxx>]

William,

     Last time I checked Japan was still running a pretty

substantial trade surplus.  Given the low proportion of

GDP that is exported and this surplus, it would seem that

your alleged explanation is at best a rather minor part of a

more general explanation.  Internal factors still look more

important.

     For another thing, in what markets do the Chinese

and Japanese compete for exports?  By and large they

export rather different goods.  In fact, your explanation would

have a hard time counting as a factor at all.   Blame China

for the problems of the former "tigers" of Southeast Asia,

if you want, maybe.  But to blame Japan's problems on China

seems way off.

Barkley Rosser

rosserjb@xxxxxxx

----- Original Message -----

From: William B. Ryan

To: pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sent: Monday, April 09, 2001 1:54 AM

Subject: Re: the share held by banks

Japan's malaise is fundamentally caused by the continuing loss of its export market to China.  Much of its industrial base was geared to that export market and is becoming redundant.  In analytical terms we say that, in respect of its import curve, its export curve is shifting relatively from a positive toward a negative slope--with severe financial repercussions.  The phenomenon is entirely beyond the control of Japanese policy makers.

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