Probability And Economics

["Gunnar Tomasson" <tomasson@xxxxxxxx>]

Recent exchanges on uncertainty, probability etc. raise an important question:

 

What does probability have to do with theoretical economics?

 

While Einstein may have been in a minority of one among his peers in suggesting that the probability calculus and associated non-deterministic view of quantum mechanical phenomena was predicated on ignorance with respect to the behavior of non-probabilistic individual "systems" as distinct from ensembles thereof, there was never any question that, in the context of quantum mechanics, use of the probability calculus yielded predictions whose accuracy was unsurpassed.

 

Considering that use of the probability calculus in quantum mechanics is sanctioned by predictive accuracy, what would justify its use in would-be economic models of - by QM standards - risible predictive accuracy?

 

Gunnar