Re: uncertainty

[Paul Downward <P.M.Downward@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Mat,

Paul discusses these issues in 'Reality and Economic Theory' JPKE
Summer 1996.

The basic difference - to me - boils down to:

a) Epistemological uncertainty - agents may be presented as, genuinely
feel that, they do not know the future. However, in analysis of
agents and structures the future is (often implicitly) presented as
predetermined. I take this to mean that there is an
appeal to ergodicity by the theorist. Thus, in making this
epistemological assumption an ontological claim about the nature of
the economy is invoked.

b) Ontological uncertainty is associated with a rejection of
ergodicity. Thus, agent behaviour creates the future which is not
predetermined. Once again, this essentially epistemological assumption
rests upon an ontological position. However, this is radically
different. The uncertainty is a feature of the essence of the economy
and thus rests in ontological material rather that epistemological
categories.

Paul, of course, uses this distinction to categorise types of economic
theorising. Thus new Keynesian coordination failure analysis is an
example of a). Keynes' GT is an example of b).

I must admit that I find the references to epistemology and ontology in
this distinction unhelpful. It does lead to confusion. Look at the
debates on rhetorical strategy between Paul and the CR's.

Nonetheless I think that Paul is right to engage with the
mainstream on their own terms. In this respect I think that the
ergodic non-ergodic, path independent - path dependent duals much
more amenable.

Hope that this helps a bit.

Paul.

On Tue, 12 Dec 2000 16:12:46 -0600 "Forstater, Mathew"
<ForstaterM@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

> Can anyone point me to a good source on the distinction between epistemological
> and ontological uncertainty. How about a two sentence definition of each? Is
> Paul's "Economics and Reality" (exact title? It was a seminar paper here, I
> think) paper published somwhere? Thanks. Mat

________________________
Dr Paul Downward
Reader in Economics
Staffordshire University
Leek Road
Stoke on Trent
ST4 2DF

Telephone 01782 294101 (direct line)