Sustainable Stock Prices

["John Gelles" <jjgelles@xxxxxxxx>]

            If share price and aggregate capital value of firms
            is always a function of subjective judgement by
            the last willing buyer, on what is that judgement
            mostly based?  Estimates of future PRICE,
            EARNINGS, DIVIDENDS, the ECONOMY,
            INDUSTRY  and FIRM.

            Yet the contrarian can fight the tape, and win, if
            he guesses right -- on where the bubbles are and
            when they will burst. The problem is when you sell
            short, you are fighting the upside.  Downside risk
            is certain. Upside risk is unlimited.  So only a very
            few of us will risk getting rich on bursting bubbles.

            And of those only one will be right. You or me?

            But it was nice to read Henry's item on how these
            bubbles are seeded, nurtured, and grown -- all
            to give us the opportunity ride them up or down.

            John