Re: Pkt'ers in Washington for the EEA conference?

[thorthor <thorthor@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Hello Trond,

I just quickly read through your paper and found it challening, but very
interesting. Your theoretical argument is quite important -- that
financial accumulation and mal-distribution can lead to an unsustainable
situation -- and corroborates what many economists, like Wynne Godley and
Ravi Batra  have been warning about for some time.

Interestingly, with respect to your model, it would appear that the Fed's
ongoing gradual tightening of money growth could have more serious
repercussions than we currently expect. In fact, there is historical
evidence to suggest that indeed, rapid deceleration in bank lending (and
other forms of financial intermediation)  is the key culprit behind
financial crises in countries where financial accumulation has gone
unchecked for too long.

There is no doubt that financial accumulation in the US has been supported
by rapid money growth. So the preconditions for a financial crisis may be
in place in the western world today.  However, there may also be other
factors at work.  Living systems are usually more complicated than our
ability to model them.  The inherent non-ergodicity  makes forecasting
very uncertain ;-)

With my best regards,


Thor Thorgeirsson

P.S. Ég er íslendingur.

Trond Andresen wrote:

> I am going to the EEA conference, arriving om Tuesday afternoon.
>
> While having been a lurker lately on this list, I have earlier gotten
> acquainted through many cyber-discussions over the years
> since 1996 with quite a few of you pkt'ers. If anyone are interested
> in meeting in Washington, I am available from Tuesday evening
> onwards (details below).
>
> How about deciding a place and time to meet informally for pkt 'ers
> during the conference, and announcing it on this list? Are
> there any list participants in the Washington area that could
> take an inititative, and announce the time and place on this list in
> a couple of days?
>
> Cheers
>
> Trond Andresen
> Norway (until Tuesday)
>
> *************
>
> I am staying at
> the Adams Inn, ph. +1 202 745 3600,
> fax 00 1 202 319 7958. On Friday morning I move
> to the Crystal City Hyatt, the conference site. I am giving
> my talk on Sunday, at one of Louis-Philippe Rochon's
> "Minsky Sessions". See program on
> http://www.iona.edu/academic/arts_sci/orgs/eea/conf2000/Sunday11.htm
>
> (shameless self-promotion:)
> My talk is
> "Financial Fragility Portrayed by an Interacting Network of
> Monetary Stocks and Flows".
> A 96% proofread  ;-) manuscript with a different title can be found on
> http://csf.Colorado.EDU/authors/Andresen.Trond/system-econ-eea.pdf