RE: Uncertainty and Liquidity Preference

["Lisa & Ian Murray" <seamus@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Doesn't this bias our sense of uncertainty towards merely sorites paradox
types of ignorance.  Surely our problems of uncertainty are greater than
mere additivity?  if the economic world is non-linear and non-ergodic, then
surely our theory of ignorance, and error correction (improving predictive
capacity) as well as errors in tracking it (the economy) must be non-linear
as well?

Ian

> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> Behalf Of John M. Legge
> Sent: Monday, July 12, 1999 7:08 PM
> To: POST-KEYNESIAN THOUGHT
> Subject: Re: Uncertainty and Liquidity Preference
>
>
> Paul has provided a comprehensive answer.
>
> This is just self defence:
> When I wrote that today is the best predictor of tomorrow that is
> my exact meaning: today is Tuesday in Melbourne and tomorrow the
> weather and the Australian economy won't be very different.
> Neither I nor anyone else knows exactly how different tomorrow
> will be, but experience teaches that, whatever direction the
> changes take, they are likely to be small ones.
>
> It is when all the tomorrows are added up to reach the long run
> that complete, fundamental uncertainty reigns.
>
> JML
>
>
> ----- Original Message (part) -----
> From: Ted Winslow <winslow@xxxxxxxx>
> To: POST-KEYNESIAN THOUGHT <pkt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, 13 July 1999 8:18
> Subject: Re: Uncertainty and Liquidity Preference
>
>
> > Chip, Paul, John, David:
> >
> >
> > To claim that "today is still the best predictor of tomorrow's
> conditions"
> > where tomorrow is the long run is, it seems to me, to deny the
> existence of
> > fundamental uncertainty in the above sense.
> >
>