Political Economy of Yugoslavia

[chip poirot <csp@xxxxxxx>]

I think it is very helpful to analyze the impact of IMF plans on the breakup
of Yugoslavia. Beginning in the 1980's the IMF oversaw several unsuccessful
plans. For those interested, I want to throw out a few ideas and see where
they go. By 1989, Yugoslavia was experiencing hyperinflation, and in January
of 1990 an austerity plans was introduced.

Before discussing these plans however, I think it is helpful to go back and
look at the Yugoslav economy in the 50's, 60's and 70's. From 1952-1965
Yugoslavia experienced growth rates of 9%. In contrast to CMEA countries, at
least some of this growth was export oriented so Yugoslavia had to compete in
international markets. CMEA countries in the region focused on heavy industry
but Yugoslavia also developed light industry (e.g. textiles, rubber). In 1965,
central planning was abandoned and the state turned to indicative planning. In
1975, a modified plan "by agreement" was implemented. By the late '70's,
growth turned negative. Inflation took off in the early 80's.

Here is a fairly standard explanation for the growth of the tensions. At the
micro-level, self-management was ineffective. The party and enterprise
managers dominated decision making. Workers were strong enough however to
press for wage increases. In the late 1970's and 1980's, wages increased
faster than output, adding to inflationary pressures.

The plans developed after 1975 led to the growth in regionalism and resentment
of the center, adding to the centrifugal tendencies of Yugoslav politics.

I'll stop there and see where this leads.