Re: Danby seminar

["Bruce R. McFarling" <ecbm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

	The question I have is how the argument in Colin's paper
interacts with Thirlwall's Law:

	1) How would we expect countries to sort out in terms of
facing export demand constraints on growth on the one hand
and facing challenges due to international liquidity constraints
on the other?  Does either tend to reinforce the other, for
example?

	2) Given that most developing countries are under
an export demand constraint on growth in the longer term,
especially after adopting neoliberal trade policies, does
the bias in favor of companies with access to international
liquidity imply an increased income elasticity of imports
in these countries?

	3) Given that under a neoliberal trade regime, a
developing country's best hope of climbing into a middle
income status is to develop exports with high income
elasticity, is there an interaction between the increased
financial fragility that is pointed out in Danby's
paper and an increased exposure to risk in a global
downturn due to reliance on income elastic exports?  Or
is the successful climber one that succeeds in protecting
itself against periodic setbacks in its export performance?

	
Virtually,

Bruce McFarling, Newcastle, NSW
ecbm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx