RE: Argentina (fwd)

[Diego Miranda <miranda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

On Fri, 19 Sep 1997, Leticia Arroyo Abad wrote:

> Well, I've been doing some research and I found a whole book that tried to
> explain the new estimations of Argentina GDP.
> The main differences are:
> a) production subestimation (33%)
> b) high growth in three years (25%)
> c) US inflation between 1986 and 1992 (25%)
> d) drop in the exchange rate between 1986 and 1992

First, a little question: Could you please give us the citation of that
book, and, if possible, indications about how and where to get it?

Then, and returning to Doug's question, I would say that even though
Argentina  has an overhead infrastructure and economic activity similar to
that of Korea, it (not surprisingly) shares many socioeconomic traits with
a poorer Mexico. These traits include a terrible distribution of income, and an
industrial structure and entrepneurial mentality reflective of the two
main characteristics of Argenitna during the 1930-1990 period: high
dependence on state, and an extremelly discounted future horizon. The
current reform has set up the framework within which these problems could
be corrected, but it seems to me that Argentina still lacks a blueprint
for the needed corrections. In part, this may be solved with time.
Argentina has only 13 years of (relatively speaking) instituional
stability, and only 6 years of less than two-digits inflation. In fact,
only in 1994 did Argentina's real GDP per capita surpass the ammount it
had in 1980.

Diego