RE: ARGENTINA

[Juan Jose Barrios <jota@xxxxxxxxx>]

At 11:24 AM 9/19/97 -0300, you wrote:
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>Dear PKT'rs:
>	Unfortunately, I joined to this debate a little bit late, since I was out
of town, but very enthusiastic.
>	I think that in order to understand the Argentinean phenomena, some things
have to be said.
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>	The sharp increase in the GDP is mainly the result of an important growth
rate since 1991 (with a clear decline in 1995 what was called the tequila
effect), and the strong appreciation of the domestic currency after the
currency board (convertibilidad) was implemented in 1991. Today, Buenos
Aires, is one of the most expensive cities in the world, and for sure, the
most expensive in Latin America. But also, smaller cities and towns in the
provinces are also very expensive. 
>	That Argentina has an income per capita of around 8.000 dollars is quite
reasonable. But what should be said is that the average income of the
highest 10% of the population in relation to the average income of the first
decil, that used to be 9 to 1, today is around 23 times. And we know how
much rich people lie about their income.
>	Unemployment skyrocketed from less than 6% in 1990 (in the middle of a
recession) to 18%, and today is 16.7%. 68% (official figures) of the new
employment are under temporary basis. The deregulation of labor markets (a
la Malaysia) left a great number of workers out of business. If you are over
45 years old you have no hope. The social welfare reaches less than 12% of
the unemployed. 
>	Poverty, measured by the indirect method (incomes) is around 30%, lower
than the one in October 1989 true, but as a base year, that was the year of
the hyper inflation with 5.000% yearly. In 1988 was less than 14%. 
>	If one uses the direct method (Unsatisfied basic needs), poverty has
increased by two. Argentina is a country where the historically high rate of
school retention has declined during the decade. Infant mortality increased
in half of the provinces. Malnourishment reaches 35% of the kids in the
north of the country. All this in an economy that grew 40% in terms of GDP
since 1991!!! This is the miracle.
>	The thing gets more complex when one concludes that poverty is realy
heterogeneous, with empoverish middle classes and structural poors, both
needing different solutions.
>	It is true that the country needed serious structural changes, but the
sudden opening of the economy, privatization of public services with no
regulatory framework (or a very relaxed one), plus the lack of industrial
and social policies, turned this country, characterized by its strong,
massive middle class, into a polarized society, with a constant
deterioration of income distribution, where the wages account for less than
a quarter of the GDP, and the top 20% of the population captures 55% of the
value added (again official figures).
>	I do not want to go longer on other things, but if I wouldn't be
Argentinean, I would consider this country a very interesting one to study.
Here I see teachers earning U$D 350, retired U$D 150, workers U$D 200, with
all the pain that these causes. Social, sectorial and regional polarization.
A text book dual society.
>	It is true that this government made a sort of revolution. Dramatic
opening of the economy, deregulation, rising value added tax and lowered
income tax, promoted financial speculation, privatization, real appreciation
of the domestic currency, etc. etc. But being in my 40's and coming from
other decades, for me revolution has other meanings. 

Daniel (or Carlos?)

Good post.  I guess it shows am 'unsold' picture of the country and answer a
lot of 'potentially new' questions.  I insist in that the current governemt
is just ignoring the entire history of Argentina and trying to insert the
country in an environment that is not 'ours'. Tremendous error, I believe.

I would recommend (altough I just started reading it) a book called 'The
other Argentina', writen by Prof.. Larry Sawers of the American University.
Unfortunately, the Spanish version is not on the market yet. Prof. Sawers
traveled (and lived) to Argentina during 1987 and 1993 and visited all the
provinces (except one). The book deals with the 'forgotten interior'.

Saludos de un uruguayo en DC (Regards from an uruguayan in DC)

Juanjo


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>Daniel Kostzer
>dkostzer@xxxxxxxxxx
>Universidad Nacional de Tucumán
>Argentina
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