RE: Argentina

["Leticia Arroyo Abad" <asecon@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

----------

> >Doug Henwood wrote:
> >> Since we have a few Argentines on PKT, and some non-Argentine students
of
> >> the country, maybe someone knows the story behind the World Bank's
> >> mysterious upgrading of Argentina's per capita GDP figures. In the
1987
> >> World Development Report, Argentina's per capita GDP was given as
$2,130,
> >> just behind South Korea and just above Mexico. In 1992, Argentina's
> >income
> >> was $2,370, way behind Korea's $5,400 and about $100 below Mexico. In
the
> >> 1997 WDR, Argentina clocks in at $8,030, more than twice Mexico's
$3,320,
> >> and not that far behind Korea's $9,700. Does this make any sense to
> >anyone?
> >
> >This is one of the mysteries of our country!! One is wondering how this
can
> >happen. There was a recent study about this, and due to the
overvaluation
> >of the peso, they tried to estimate the GDP per capita, and to our
surprise
> >it was lower than the official statististics, the GDP was adjusted by
PPP.
> >For example the 1997 GDP estimation is 315,327 millions of pesos and
> >adjusted by PPP it's 200,796.9 millions of dollars!! (quite a
difference,
> >don't you think).
>
> One has to be cautios with this PPP stuff specially in the short run and
> specially when a country is going trhu such structural transformations.
> There is huge evidence that PPP does not hold in the short run.
>
> > In terms of GDP per capita: 9264 pesos versus 5900!!
>
> Same thing
>
> >Besides in 1980 there were National Accounts revisions "sponsored" by
the
> >World Bank, which led to higher GDP estimates. Although it is true that
> >Argentina has experienced since 1991 a huge growth (the 80's are known
as
> >the lost decade), the GDP per cápita is not an accurate measure for the
> >people welfare (the income inequality is deeper and it doesn't seem that
we
> >are having a turning point right now).
>
> Do you have recent data about this last statement?
>

Well, if you take a look at lorenz curves and gini coefficients, you'll see
what I say. Perhaps (as Laura said before) there is less poverty (in
relative terms), but the middle class is not living in the same way that
they used to. Tomorrow, if you want (and if I can finish my work), I can
send some figures for further dicussion.

>The World Bank says Argentine GDP per capita on a PPP basis is $8,310. The
>confusion deepens...

The figures I've pointed out before where not the ones estimated by the WB,
it was an essay presented by an economist in Argentina. I really don't know
how accurate are WB estimations deling with GDP adjusted by PPP, but this
work I'm quoting is reliable (from my point of view). In short, he
estimated Argentina GDP by using the implicit exchange rate y the implicit
price index (American GDP deflator). As our currency is pegged to the US
dollar, it's quite intuitive to notice that the dollar appreciation is
affecting our economy, in the standard national accounts this fact it's not
reflected.

Lety