Balanced Budget and Depression

["Charles J. Reid" <cjreid@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Greetings!

I hope the professionals on this forum will not mind me posing this
question:

A couple of days ago on C-Span a professor, Nicholas Archer, I think,
presented some graphs indicating that, throughout American history, the 6
major depressions were ALL preceded by periods marked by efforts to
balance the federal budget and reduce the debt. Can professional
economists sustain this conclusion drawn from the historical evidence?

I am just someone with a political science education monitoring this
forum (and I also produce a community access TV talk show). Prima facie,
in simplistic macroeconomic terms, a reduction of govenment spending -
whether direct spending or interest payments on the debt -  as a
proportion as a proportion of GDP, would reduce consumption, leading to
over-production, stockpiling of inventories, laying off of workers, etc,
leading to lower wages, greater unemployment, and ultimately an increase
in business bankruptcy and investment losses.

Is this thinking correct? (Sorry if it's too simple for you folks.)

If so, what does this imply vis-a-vis current conservative economic policy?

Hope you don't mind my intruding on your forum.

-- Charlie Reid
cjreid@xxxxxxxxxx
"Salus populi suprema est lex" (Cicero)
The welfare of the people is the highest law.