EU referendum in Norway - 4days to go!

[Trond Andresen <Trond.Andresen@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Today's (Thursday) opinion polls are 51% (+1) - (Scan-Fact Co.),
55%(-3)-(MMI Co.) and 53(0) - (Gallup Co.), 54.4 (?) - (Opinion Co.)
for NO, correspondingly for YES. Numbers in parentheses are changes
from yesterday's corresponding polls.  The mean of those four polls is
53.35, while yesterday' mean was  53.67, and the day before yesterday
was 54.67. It seems that we are converging asymptotically towards a
weak NO result. The referendum is on Monday, and the PM terminated her
campaign yesterday. The YES side now has very little time left to
convince more voters.  An interesting fact is that the intense
campaign for YES from the establishment those last 10 days has only had
the effect of turning doubters over to YES. People being NO at the
outset have not been convinced to a significant degree.

Btw I got a separate message from a Polish list participant, saying this:

	For a last few weeks I follow your opinions and reflections concerning
	referendum in Norway. And I must say that we could expect something
	more from someone who hold position in a research institute.

Whew. Now, I am just one of those technologists having the gall to post
on economic and political issues. Please bear with me.

	Don't get me wrong: I don't refuse you the right to be AGAINST. But
	please, don't treat anty-European opinion as a scientific analysys and
	pro-European as a propaganda. It doesn't sound serious.

A few comments to this: First, I make a distinction beteen the term
"Europe" and "EU". I am not anti-Europe, more than I am anti-Africa,
Asia, America, Australia. In fact, Norway is part of Europe (look at a
map). I am against the European Union as an undemocratic supranational
centralized system. In this I am in line with - at least - half the
Danish, French, British and German populations where polls and/or
referendums show increasing frustration and skepticism. Denmark has
been inside for 22 years, and in every referendum related to the EU
since 1972, the NO side has grown. In 1992 they voted NO the Maastricht
Treaty which specifies a political, monetary union with one foreign
policy and a goal of a future EU army, which will include British and
french nuclear weapons, just now being modernized for billions of
dollars in both these countries.

I understand the Eastern European economic, political and media elite
being desperate to join (concerning ordinary people, however, in what
way have they had any informed discussion on this topic??). The elite
hope to have a share of the riches of Western Europe, and they are
justifiably frustrated by the very protectionist barriers that the EU
has erected against imports from Eastern Europe (symphatetic, isn't
it?). But don't forget that neither germany nor france have any
intention of admitting Russia, Ukraina and Byelorussia into the EU at
any time. They will not give up their dominant position in this
project, and know they will be "swamped" if countries with 200+ million
people join. So what they propose only, is future membership to Central
European small and medium countries, not Eastern European large ones.
But not for the nearest 4 years or so, since the common EU budget would
collapse under the strain, and today's EU have large inner problems,
and low legitimacy in public opinion.

The Norwegian NO opinion is quite well-informed both on the EU and
international politics in general (we have discussed and studied it for
24 - 34 years!!!). We want to cooperate, trade and promote peace in
Europe and the rest of the world. but we want to decide and make laws
in our country, just as we recognize other people's right to the same
in their countries. We want leaders that we can control and remove if
neccessary, we want an open public political process, access to what is
going on in the state bureaucracy. Today this is not perfect in our own
country, but it functions very well compared to many other countries.

This is impossible in the EU. There is no common political and
democratic arena:  Geographical and social distances to the top are
enormous, languages differ, cultural differences are large.  Laws are
passed by gvt.  ministers in closed meetings, in principle even what
the Norwegian gvt. representative has voted is to be kept confidential
to the Norwegian public. Proceedings of EU Council meetings are
secret.  And this when they pass laws which supercede Norwegian law and
our Constitution _for_Norwegian_citizens_on_Norwegian_territory.  The
brussels bureaucracy is closed against public and media access, but
very open to the 10.000 lobbyists in Brussels, paid primarily by
multinationals.  Commissioners and EU Parlamentarians have wages and
fringe benfits way beyond anything comparable in but this is no
criticism of countries being members. The EU is to put it short and
undemocratic system consisting of democratic countries..

Trond
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| Trond Andresen (Trond.Andresen@xxxxxxxxxxx) |
| Department of Engineering Cybernetics       |
| The Norwegian Institute of Technology	      |
| N-7034 Trondheim, NORWAY		      |
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| phone (work)	+47 73 59 43 58               |
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