Re: What-if scenarios

["Anthony D'Costa" <dcosta@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

The US is a service oriented economy, however measured, and rightly or
wrongly.  The US has a military that has served and continues to serve
its geopolitical interests.  Since the US is not industrially recovering
from the long downswing in any substantive way, it is more liklely that the
US will generate its service-oriented activity, namely, its military,
among others.

Rather than continue its role as a global cop, the US military will
simply be seen as another "economic" activity, to provide military
services to clients for a fee.  Witness the Gulf War case.  Perhaps
developing a "mercenary" force is reflective of the highest form of service-
oriented economy.

On another note, Doug and others argued that devaluation is not a useful
measure for prosperity.  May be so.  But since US consumption is so
heavily skewed toward foreign-made goods, perhaps devaluation should be
seen as a way to curtail US consumption of foreign goods.  Not only will
the crass consumptionism be somewhat stemmed, but hopefully such long
term devaluation along with other supportive policies can actually help
foster domestic industries.  Whether the US wants to devalue the dollar or
not is a function of its arrogance, not unlike John Major's
pretentious attempt to hold on to the British pound.  But then the US
military could prop up the dollar through its world-wide services!

Anthony D'Costa