Re: What-if scenarios

[FAC_BROSSER@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Reply to S. Guastello:
1)  As has been noted before , the Japanese are in no
hurry to have the yen displace the dollar as they are
in no hurry to experience the "benefits" of "quasi-
seignorage."  The mark as of now looks more likely as
it is held in non-trivial quantities by many central
banks as a reserve currency.  If the Maastricht
crowd ever gets it together, not looking too likely
right now, a fully adopted ecu would be the obvious
replacement candidate.
     Other than some stress on the financial system
with the one-off dump of dollars (perhaps occurring
right now), there is likely to be no major longer run
effect on the US economy of not being the issuer of
the world's medium of exchange.  Long run value of
dollar would be slightly lower with all that entails.
2)  It can be argued that DOD spending has helped
trade balance.  Except for agriculture, most of the
major export industries of the US (computers, aircraft)
have benefitted greatly from DOD subsidies.
Barkley Rosser
JMU and UW-Madison
PS:  Stephen:  I am still planning on responding to
your Duffing oscillator piece.  Could not reach
you privately at your address.  Send me a message
and I shall reply. Will make general reply also.