Re: What-if scenarios

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

The IMF, as befits its name, has clearly been thinking about reforming the
international monetary system. IMF Occasional Paper #96,"Policy Issues in
the Evolving International Monetary System" imagined the world evolving
towards a tied regional system, with smaller First and Third World
currencies tying their value to one of the major metropolitan units at a
stable, if not immutable rate, while the big three currencies (dollar,
D-mark, yen) floated freely against each other. This would be an analogue
to the evolving structure of investment and production around the world,
as the world consolidates into three economic regions, each dominated by
one of the big three powers. Unlike the 1930s, however, these regional
blocs are connected to each other through trade, financial, and investment
links among the three central countries.

The Volcker/Bretton Woods Commission report, which is winging its way
towards me in the mail, recommends more fixity than this, from the press
summaries I've read.

Doug

Doug Henwood [dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx]
Left Business Observer
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