What-if scenarios

[6155GUASTELL@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

In light of the present discussions, esp. the yen as an international
medium of exchange, a couple what-if scenarios came to mind:

1. According to King & Schneider ("The First Global Revolution") it is
inevitable that the dollar will cease to be the international medium
of exchange while the yen and/or the mark take its place. (a) what
would be the effect on the US economy, and (b) is such a scenario
likely in the next five years?

2. There was mention that the US is running up massive deficits while
the former axis nations are having the opposite economic experience.
A substantial amount of our deficits accumulated as a result of
defense-related spending in the last decade. WHAT IF the US took a
fast about-face, decided that it was no longer interested in playing
"cops of the world" and demanded greater cost sharing for world
security. Here I am thinking of the United Nations mechanisms for
approving military action. (a) What would be the world economic
impact? (b) Would the impact be different before or after the replacement
of the dollar as the international medium? (c) Would there be a
secondary political backlash for taking such a move? (I presume it
would not be a smooth transition by any stretch, but how deep would
it go?

Don't mean to be a pain, but under it all I'm groping for possible
solutions. I see a large entaglement of problems, poor decision-making
in Washington, and not too much good news on the horizon. What am I
missing here? Thoughts appreciated.

Stephen