EEA meetings

[FAC_BROSSER@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Response to Ric Holt's questions (alos sorry we did not meet):
     Session on Post-Socialist Transitions included papers by
Marina Rosser of James Madison University, Robert McIntyre of
Bowdoin College, and Dorothy Rosenberg of Bowdoin.  The general
tone was skeptical regarding outcomes of shock therapy and
arguing for recognizing details of local conditions as well as
preserving structures from previous system that are useful.
     Rosser paper focused on former Soviet republics and saw
different conditions in different zones with Baltics most oriented
towards markets based on rural traditions of private property and
markets contrasting sharply with Central Asian ones where Asiatic
models of greater collectivism more relevant.
     McIntyre looked at public goods roles of collective farms in
Eastern Europe and argued that shock therapy has destroyed these.
Similar results extend nationally playing a role in general economic
collapse that has occurred.
     Rosenberg focused on former GDR arguing as truest case of pure
shock therapy and experiencing greatest collapse of all.  Noted
especially severe impact on women.
     In comments Lynn Turgeon of Hofstra U. noted that dissolution of
CMEA, decided upon at a meeting in Sofia in Jan. 1990 played a major
role in the collapse throughout former Soviet bloc (aside to Lynn:  I
suggest you follow the Allin Cottrell model and put your Bretton Woods
piece on the pkt in 3 or 4 chunks announcing ahead of time what you
are doing.  Might dump some of the earlier material on Keynes' 20's
and 30's views on fiscal policy; I think most of us know that).
      In the Keynes, Coordination, Chaos session I presented a paper
on "Chaos Theory and the Macrofoundations of Micro" most of which
readers of this net have seen the main arguments from.  I note some
interesting recent work on "transient chaos" in the Kaldor trade cycle
model by Hans-Walter Lorenz.  The main argument is that the possibility
of chaotic dynamics makes rational expectations unlikely.
    A paper by John Bryant of Rice showed how coordination problems can
arise in an "island production" model.
    David Reaume critiqued the menu cost approach in a paper arguing
that the Akerlof-Yellen argument that "small deviations from rationality
can make big deviations in equilibria" may not hold.  In particular,
second and even third-order effects may be greater than first order ones.
     Commentary by Peter Howitt of Western Ontario noted that there is
a problem of distinguishing between the problem of coordinating between
different multiple equilibria and the problem of different parties
trying to pursue different equilibria thereby leading to disequilibrium.
This seems to be an unresolved issue.  Mechanisms of coordination such
as French indicative planning were also debated by the audience.
     There were a lot of other interesting sessions, including a number
in the nonlinear econometrics and theory mini-conference.  A very
intense and heavy-duty plenary talk by Jim Ramsey of NYU included the
summary line: "Regression is local, extrapolation is global," giving
the flavor of his warnings about nonlinear forecasting problems.
Barkley Rosser
James Madison University