Uncertainty

["RICHARD P.F. HOLT" <holtri@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

>From Carl Dassbach
> Some time ago there was a discussion about uncertainty on this
> list.  I am interested in the question of uncertainty, especially
> in relation to Schumpeter's theory of Long Waves because I
> believe that uncertainty is what prevents the entrepreneurs from
> "coming forward" until a certain point in the cycle, i.e., when
> the cycle has again approached what Schumpeter calls "a
> neighborhood of equilibrium."  Uncertainty, in other words,
> addresses one of best known critiques of Schumpeter theory of
> long waves, originally advanced by Kuznets, namely, that
> Schumpeter does not explain why innovations cluster in time. As I
> read Schumpeter, he argues that entrepreneurs swarm during the
> "neighborhood of equilibrium" following depression because prior
> to that conditions are so unsettled and reliable predictions
> about the future impossible (uncertainty).  I have only seen a
> brief discussion about the importance of uncertainty in
> Schumpeter theory of Long Waves in a review by Oskar Lange.
>
> As a sociologist, I am not familiar with the literature in
> economics and I was wondering if anyone knew of other discussions
> on the question of uncertainty and Schumpeter's theory of long
> waves or could refer me to useful discussion on uncertainty in
> general.
>
> Carl Dassbach
> ---------------------------
>
> Carl H.A. Dassbach                      E-mail: DASSBACH@xxxxxxx
> Dept. of Social Sciences                Phone:  (906)487-2115
> Michigan Technological Univ.            Fax:    (906)487-2468
> Houghton, MI  49931  U.S.A.
>