Re: [Pen-l] green shot

[Jim Devine <jdevine03@xxxxxxxxx>]

FWIW, I didn't "conclude." I'm speculating.  But it's pretty clear
that even though we don't know the June value, the trend is upward.

On Mon, Jun 22, 2009 at 9:27 AM, Doug Henwood<dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> On Jun 22, 2009, at 12:14 PM, Jim Devine wrote:
>
>> Posted By Barry Ritholtz On June 22, 2009 @ 10:00 am In Film, Finance,
>> Friday Night Jazz, Investing, Markets | 19 Comments
>>
>> Last week, we saw Continuing Claims decrease — proof, said the green
>> shooters [optimists], of the imminent economic recovery.
>>
>> Only, not so much:
>>
>> Those of you (who can still afford the luxury of) a trusty Bloomberg
>> will note the ‘exhaustion rate’ for jobless benefits - EXHTRATE –
>> reveals that people are not leaving the pool of continuing
>> unemployment claims because they are getting new jobs; Rather, they
>> are leaving because they have exhausted their benefits.
>>
>> They are now unemployed AND broke. That is hardly a green shoot . . .
>>
>> see graph at:
>> http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/exht-rate.png
>
> This graph shows the exhaustion rate - which is only available through May,
> so we don't know what happened in June - rising continuously since the end
> of 2007. And the number of continuing claims rose steadily at the same time.
> So now we've seen the first significant decline in a long time. How do you
> conclude from that that the decline was a result of exhaustion? How is June,
> for which we have no exhaustion data, different from all other months?
>
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-- 
Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own
way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante.
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