Re: [Pen-l] green shot

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

On Jun 22, 2009, at 12:14 PM, Jim Devine wrote:

> Posted By Barry Ritholtz On June 22, 2009 @ 10:00 am In Film, Finance,
> Friday Night Jazz, Investing, Markets | 19 Comments
>
> Last week, we saw Continuing Claims decrease — proof, said the green
> shooters [optimists], of the imminent economic recovery.
>
> Only, not so much:
>
> Those of you (who can still afford the luxury of) a trusty Bloomberg
> will note the ‘exhaustion rate’ for jobless benefits - EXHTRATE –
> reveals that people are not leaving the pool of continuing
> unemployment claims because they are getting new jobs; Rather, they
> are leaving because they have exhausted their benefits.
>
> They are now unemployed AND broke. That is hardly a green shoot . . .
>
> see graph at: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/exht-rate.png

This graph shows the exhaustion rate - which is only available through  
May, so we don't know what happened in June - rising continuously  
since the end of 2007. And the number of continuing claims rose  
steadily at the same time. So now we've seen the first significant  
decline in a long time. How do you conclude from that that the decline  
was a result of exhaustion? How is June, for which we have no  
exhaustion data, different from all other months?

Doug_______________________________________________
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