Re: [Pen-l] two questions

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

On Jun 19, 2009, at 9:55 AM, Jim Devine wrote:

> The recent stats showed the size of the US unemployment insurance
> rolls falling from the previous month. The pundits saw this as a sign
> of possible recovery, perhaps later this year. But: to what extent is
> the fall in the number of UI recipients simply the result of (1) the
> surge of the unemployment insurance rolls about 6 months ago and (2)
> the fact that in a lot of states, UI payments end six months after
> they start?

The pattern has historically been that initial claims peak first and  
then roll over and head down, then continuing claims (which are what  
you're referring to here), as a recession is ending. So, this is  
starting to look like normal end-of-recession labor market patterns.  
Not that the recovery is likely to sparkle, but it's quite possible  
that this is the beginning of the end of the worst.

Doug
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