[Pen-l] Article on risk aversion

[Bill Lear <rael@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Today's NY Times carries an article on a study irrational risk
aversion in golf by U. Penn. Wharton School professors Devin Pope and
Maurice Schweitzer that might be of interest to economists (or any
golfers here on the list): "Settling for Par: Pros More Likely to Play
It Safe", http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/sports/golf/16study.html.

In summary, the study found that professional golfers "are so consumed
with avoiding bogeys that they make putts for birdie discernibly less
often than identical-length putts for par" with the difference peaking
for putts from 6 to 12 feet and falling off below and above that
(including Tiger Woods who was about average in this measure and who
famously "hates bogeys").

I did find a few things a bit off, though.

The article says that the irrational bias discovered in the study
"cost each golfer about one stroke tournament per which can translate
to hundreds of thousands of dollars in prize money".  But isn't it
true that if each golfer gained one stroke per tournament, they would
be no better off in terms of prize money, as every golfer would be
similarly better off?

Also, even though I realize that a stroke is a stroke in golf (I'm an
avid golfer) it seems that there is something psychological here that
is not captured in the article that has to do with "investment".  When
a golfer has a "reasonable" putt for birdie (not too short, not too
long, the 6-12 feet peak area found in the study), it represents an
investment in effort from the tee that has "paid off", and squandering
this investment by three-putting is an intolerable idea, and so the
propensity is to be somewhat cautious.  Conversely, when a golfer has
a reasonable putt for par in this same range, it represents somewhat
of a failure --- either you have already putted once, or you failed to
get on the green to give yourself a good try at birdie --- and so the
propensity is to feel that you have to "make up" for your recent
failure.

A good study, though, it seems.


Bill

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