Re: [Pen-l] Jared Diamond and the New Yorker, part 2

[Shane Mage <shmage@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

On May 9, 2009, at 9:07 AM, Jim Devine wrote:

> to test astrology's validity, I'll tell you all the details about my
> life (except my birthday and related) and you tell me when I was born.
> >
Astrologers don't do that sort of stage-magic trick.  Anyway, a sample  
of one has very limited statistical significance (nor am I, though  
literate, a competent astrologer).

> > Shane Mage
> >
> > This cosmos did none of gods or men make, but it
> > always was and is and shall be: an everlasting fire,
> > kindling in measures and going out in measures."
> > Herakleitos of Ephesos
> >
> > > Start with something much simpler.  Take fifty matched pairs--one  
> > > a lottery
> > > winner, one a victim of a fatal automobile accident.  Give birth
> > > day/time/place and event day/time place for each to 200 professional
> > > astrologers (sample size=10,000).  Tell them to identify which was  
> > > which in
> > > each case.  Test the percentage of correct identifications for  
> > > statistical
> > > significance.
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