Re: [Pen-l] Jared Diamond and the New Yorker, part 2

[Jim Devine <jdevine03@xxxxxxxxx>]

to test astrology's validity, I'll tell you all the details about my
life (except my birthday and related) and you tell me when I was born.

On Fri, May 8, 2009 at 9:57 PM, Shane Mage <shmage@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> On May 9, 2009, at 12:35 AM, Sabri Oncu wrote:
>
> Shane:
>
> That  astrology's theoretical structure finds no place among the theoretical
>
> structures of the "respectable" sciences in no way negates the fact
>
> that it is, in principle, scientific.  Empirical testing could
>
> invalidate--or (perish the thought) confirm it.
>
> But then, there is the data issue: should it be time-series,
> cross-sectional or panel (that is, time-series/cross-sectional)?
>
> If it is time-series or panel, what should be the observation
> frequency: yearly, monthly, hourly, every other secondly or shorter or
> way longer than yearly?
>
> If it is cross-sectional or panel, how large should be the
> cross-section: five persons, 5,000 persons, 5,000,000 persons, the
> entire human population currently alive and lived in the past?
>
> How about fitting a two-dimensional Fourier Series to an infinitely
> long-infinitely broad data?
>
> The fit would be perfect, but would it explain or predict anything?
>
> Start with something much simpler.  Take fifty matched pairs--one a lottery
> winner, one a victim of a fatal automobile accident.  Give birth
> day/time/place and event day/time place for each to 200 professional
> astrologers (sample size=10,000).  Tell them to identify which was which in
> each case.  Test the percentage of correct identifications for statistical
> significance.
>
> Shane Mage
>
> This cosmos did none of gods or men make, but it
>
> always was and is and shall be: an everlasting fire,
>
> kindling in measures and going out in measures."
>
> Herakleitos of Ephesos
>
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>



-- 
Jim Devine / "If heart-aches were commercials, we'd all be on TV." -- John Prine
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