[Pen-l] NYT: Andrés Manuel López Obrador is back

[Julio Huato <juliohuato@xxxxxxxxx>]

Over two years ago, after the protests led by Andrés Manuel López
Obrador against the electoral fraud ebbed, I wrote:

"Surveys are showing some level of political exhaustion among regular
people, and some are inclined to give Calderón some time to prove his
worth.  That group includes people in the leadership of the PRD.
Support for López Obrador's Legitimate Presidency has declined
slightly.  But he is still in campaign and determined as ever.  In the
last few weeks, he visited a bunch of places in the north, filling
theaters and public plazas.  Some people reason that the existence of
the legitimate presidency is good to keep Calderón's government
honest.  I think the expectation of Calderón's government being honest
under pressure is foolish.  I expect it to be even more rapacious and
corrupt -- after me the deluge.

"Calderón designated hardliners to his security cabinet, 'neoliberals'
to the economic cabinet, and corrupt political allies in education and
social programs.  One of the figures in the economic cabinet (the
communications and transportation minister) is Luis Téllez Kuenzler,
one of the original promoters of 'neoliberalism' in Mexico, closely
linked to former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari, and the
representative of the Carlyle Group in Mexico.

"Perhaps triggered by the coming recession in the U.S. or a
catastrophic failure of his invasion of Michoacán, but -- I think --
the chances of Calderón's administration melting down are rather
high."

(http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/pen-l/2006w50/msg00186.htm)

After I wrote these lines, AMLO's popularity continued to decline as
wider layers of Mexico's population granted Calderón the benefit of
the doubt.  In spite of the adversities, including a few defections,
as I expected, AMLO persisted in the struggle.  If I remember
correctly, at the time, I anticipated a milder decline in the U.S.
economy, nothing nearly as serious as the ongoing mess, and also an
earlier Calderón meltdown that hasn't yet happened.

Well, two days ago, the New York Times carried this note reporting a
certain revival of AMLO's popularity.  I wonder if list members in
Mexico could give us their reactions to this, either in English or
Spanish.

And does anybody know about this reporter (Elisabeth Malkin)?

*    *    *

New York Times
Economic Decline Lifts the Prospects of a Vocal Populist
By ELISABETH MALKIN
Published: February 3, 2009

MEXICO CITY — As the year began, the dominant political figure of
Mexico's left appeared to be heading swiftly toward irrelevance.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a former presidential candidate,
attracted thousands of supporters to a Mexico City rally Jan. 25.

But Andrés Manuel López Obrador is not dead yet.

Only two years ago, Amlo, as he is known, was the driving force in
Mexico's polarized politics. After he narrowly lost the presidency and
led months of street protests charging that it had been stolen from
him, politics boiled down to one issue: who was for him and who was
against.

Last year, his hold on public attention began to falter. The public,
the news media and many of his supporters had simply moved on, letting
the turmoil of the 2006 election fade into history.

But there are signs that the efforts of Mr. López Obrador, a former
Mexico City mayor, to revive his political career may be gaining
traction, as a deepening recession creates opportunities for his brand
of economic populism. The question now is whether he can capitalize on
that momentum to remake and expand the coalition that brought him to
within a hair's breadth of the presidency.

At a rally last week in Mexico City's immense central square, the
Zócalo, Mr. López Obrador, 55, drew tens of thousands of supporters.
Though the crowd paled beside the hundreds of thousands who attended
his rallies at the peak of the 2006 presidential campaign, it was
significantly larger than that at any of his rallies in the previous
year.

Unlike his campaign events, it was conducted without the benefit of
his party's machinery, which used to truck in supporters from around
the country, demonstrating a substantial base of hard-core support.

Saying that the economy will only get worse, Mr. López Obrador
announced a campaign to press the government to cut wasteful spending,
lower consumer prices and taxes, and do more for the poor.

"Our movement must continue demanding a change in economic policy,
which has demonstrated its failure," he said. "The model must be
changed. You cannot put new wine in old bottles."

The words clearly resonated with his poor and working-class base.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/04/world/americas/04mexico.html?pagewanted=all
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