[Pen-l] [Fwd: [chinalaborwatch] As China's Jobless Numbers Mount, Protests Grow Bolder]

[Martin Hart-Landsberg <marty@xxxxxxxxxx>]

The following article on China is well worth reading--especially note the figures in the following paragraph taken from the article:

Estimates by government research agencies for urban jobless top 18 
million, or 9 percent of the workforce -- a rate unimaginably high 
to those who remember the guaranteed cradle-to-grave employment 
during Mao's time. This figure doesn't include the growing number of 
jobless among the 160 million migrant workers who are mostly 
employed in factories. The rural unemployment rate could be as high 
as 20 percent. In addition, 1 million college graduates are not 
expected to be able to find jobs this year.

And one can only expect further deterioration in China's economy as the global downturn deepens.  Clearly things are far from stable in China.  Problems are just as serious if other East Asian countries.  One has to wonder if the East Asian export-led growth model has finally run up against its own limits.  And if so, what kind of debates and alternative visions may emerge in its place.

Marty

As China's Jobless Numbers Mount, Protests Grow Bolder
Economic Woes Shining a Light On Social Issues

By Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, January 13, 2009; A07



BEIJING -- For months, the Communist Party had been able to deflect 
anger about factory closings toward the companies themselves. The 
party managed to come off as the benevolent savior by handing out 
cash to make up for unpaid salaries. The strategy stopped working at 
the Jianrong Suitcase Factory in late December.

When offered 60 percent of their wages to disband their protest and 
go home, the workers pushed back at riot police sent to keep them 
locked in their factory compound in the southern Chinese city of 
Dongguan. According to several witnesses, more than 100 irate 
workers broke through the cordon, some shouting, "There are no human 
rights here!"

As a global recession takes hold and China's economy continues to 
slow, growing legions of unemployed workers are becoming 
increasingly bold in expressing their unhappiness -- expanding a 
debate over how to protect the Chinese economy into long-fought 
disputes over other issues such as freedom of _expression_ and 
equality before the law.

During most of the past two decades, concerns about China's human 
rights record have been overshadowed by the speed of its economic 
development and growing political influence in the world.

But as the economic crisis has grown, so, too, have challenges -- 
both small and large -- to the state's power.

In late November, two men whose village was involved in a dispute 
over a land deal took ink-filled eggs and desecrated Communist Party 
and national flags in Chongqing, the largest of China's four 
provincial-level municipalities, in a protest that copied the 
infamous defacing of Mao Zedong's portrait in the capital in 1989.

In December, 300 academics and other intellectuals signed a 
declaration of human rights known as Charter '08 that circulated on 
the Internet, sending Chinese authorities on a nationwide manhunt 
for its author.

Labor rights activist Li Qiang said China's economic problems have 
put the spotlight on social issues that have long existed -- such as 
the growing gap between the urban rich and the rural poor and the 
fight for worker rights -- but were played down by the government 
during the recent boom.

"The crisis in the West is purely economic. But in China it's a huge 
political problem," said Li, director of the New York-based China 
Labor Watch.

The ripple effects of the sharp economic downturn are growing: Crime 
is rising, as are labor strikes by taxi drivers, teachers, factory 
workers and even investors unhappy that their stock market holdings 
are now 70 percent off their peak.

Although Chinese authorities have been able to quickly disband the 
recent protests, there is concern that a single national-level 
event, if mishandled by authorities, could lead to a serious 
political crisis.

"Without doubt, we are entering a peak period for mass incidents. In 
2009, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that 
will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the 
party and government," Huang Huo, a reporter for the state-run New 
China News Agency, warned this month in a magazine published by the 
news service.

The greatest threat may come from the newly unemployed.

Unemployment is now estimated to be at its highest levels since the 
Communist Party took over in 1949. Job creation and preservation has 
become a top priority of China's leaders, who are acutely aware of 
the role a deteriorating economy played in the 1989 Tiananmen Square 
protests.

Economists say that if the growth of China's gross domestic product 
dips below 8 percent -- a healthy rate in most countries -- it would 
be a disaster here. The reason is that the demand for jobs would far 
outpace China's ability to create them.

Estimates by government research agencies for urban jobless top 18 
million, or 9 percent of the workforce -- a rate unimaginably high 
to those who remember the guaranteed cradle-to-grave employment 
during Mao's time. This figure doesn't include the growing number of 
jobless among the 160 million migrant workers who are mostly 
employed in factories. The rural unemployment rate could be as high 
as 20 percent. In addition, 1 million college graduates are not 
expected to be able to find jobs this year.

China's social security minister, Yin Weimin, has said that the 
employment situation in China is "critical," with people fighting 
for jobs that don't exist. This year as many as 24 million people 
will be competing for as few as 8 million newly created jobs.

To combat unemployment, the Chinese government in recent weeks has 
reinstituted controls that in some ways turn back the clock to 
the "iron rice bowl" era that China has tried so hard to leave 
behind during 30 years of economic reforms.

Among the most radical measures is an order by some provinces and 
cities that prohibits companies from laying off workers without the 
explicit permission of the government. Other local governments are 
offering a subsidy of about $1,500 for every worker hired who had 
not already had a job elsewhere, and seed money for start-ups that 
will employ a certain number of people. The central government for 
its part has purchased millions of tons of cotton, soybeans, sugar 
and other products to prevent companies from experiencing financial 
problems that would lead to a reduction in their workforces.

And as part of its massive $586 billion stimulus plan -- roughly 15 
percent of its GDP -- China has embarked on several dubious public 
works projects.

A $3 billion metro rail system linking the southern manufacturing 
cities of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen, for instance, has been 
criticized as a waste of money because there are already four 
railway lines linking the cities and the trains often run empty. 
Ditto a $4.5 billion highway connecting the Sichuan province cities 
of Chengdu, Zigong and Luzhou, because there are already highways 
from Chengdu to Zigong and from Zigong to Luzhou.

A bridge running from just outside Shanghai to a textile 
manufacturing center on the other side of a bay was also resurrected 
to create construction jobs. For years, its designers had been 
unable to get the $2 billion they needed to build it because its 
route would mostly duplicate that of another massive bridge that was 
already under construction.

That changed in November when at least six of the biggest employers 
at the other end of the bridge, in Shaoxing, went out of business. 
Even though there is less need because of the closures, blueprints 
for the second bridge were dusted off and, almost overnight, workers 
broke ground. The project is expected to employ about 250,000 people 
and indirectly provide jobs for 300,000 more.

Liu Bo, a 20-year-old salesman, said he hasn't seen any benefits 
from the government's efforts in his job search yet.

Technically speaking, Liu wasn't laid off but told by his employer, 
which provides sales help to companies during exhibitions, to take 
an unpaid "break" because there was no work. He has been sending out 
his r¨¦sum¨¦ to company after company, but so far nothing. In previous 
years, Liu said, "I used to receive two or three interview 
invitation calls every day whenever I sent out my CV, but now there 
is really nobody who calls me." He is not hopeful about the 
government efforts: "I never want to depend on the government."

Liu is not the only one to discover the limits of China's deep 
pockets.

For all the help it is giving workers at factories in the export-
heavy region of Guangdong province on the country's southern border, 
the government simply can't afford to pay every worker every yuan 
they are owed.

Now dealing with the third month of protests and sit-ins, the 
government has been gradually reducing its cash payouts to laid-off 
workers.

The workers at the Jianrong Suitcase Factory, who make an average of 
about $220 a month, finally accepted the government's money and went 
home after their bosses couldn't be located. But it was not without 
a fight that left workers with scrapes and bruises and, more 
important, resentment over their fate.

Still, the Jianrong workers are among the lucky ones. Tong Hengxin, 
a headhunter in Guangzhou, said some laid-off factory workers are 
getting back much less from the government, only a third of what 
they rightfully earned. With job prospects bleak, that money can't 
last long. As a result, Tong said, the mood is desperate: "Workers 
are always threatening to jump from the buildings and commit 
suicide."

Researchers Liu Liu, Liu Songjie, and Zhang Jie in Beijing 
contributed to this report.

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