Re: [Pen-l] Lengthy recession predicted

["Jim Devine" <jdevine03@xxxxxxxxx>]

>From the Los Angeles Times
> U.S. recession could last into 2010
> The group charged with making the official declaration says recession began
> in December 2007.
> By Maura Reynolds
>
> December 2, 2008

We should start eschewing the concept of "recessions" as defined by
the NBER and the orthodoxy and replacing it with that of "jobs
recessions." After all, it's employment that matters to most people.
By this standard, the jobs recession began in March, 2007. The
official unemployment rate started rising then and has been rising
since (and is likely to continue to rise). Since the BLS's alternative
measures of the unemployment rate move pretty much in step with the
official measure, I'd guess that they indicate the same conclusion.
-- 
Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own
way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante.
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