[Pen-l] the Obama movement

["Charles Brown" <charlesb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Jim D: 

Charles Brown wrote:
> CB: Yep , and like you predicted , this crisis of US finance capital will probably cause the Chinese Commnist Party, of all people,  to lose state power to....??? ( ????? smile; Now that's complexity theory and wishful thinking)

I don't know what specifically this is a reference to, since Charles
does not quote me on the subject of the CCP. But what I suggested (in
a frankly speculative missive awhile back) is the possibility of the
CCP _breaking up_. In that case, the CCP would lose power to a
fragment of its old self or two warring factions of its old self. Of
course, as I said, I don't know what's going to happen. I wasn't
suggesting that the CCP might lose power opening the door to the
people actually taking over and establishing democracy, but I guess
it's possible.

^^^

CB:Here's the missive from a while back from Jim D.:
http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/pen-l/2008w42/msg00135.htm
[Pen-l] thinking the unthinkable

A world recession usually means that we see some unexpected events.
Who would have expected in the early 1980s, for example, that Mexico
would need to be bailed out? in the current mess, who could have
predicted that Iceland would go bankrupt? or that the "Celtic Tiger"
would become the Celtic Garfield?[*]

What's something else that's unexpected that could happen? how about a
collapse of the Communist Party of China, perhaps showing up as an
informal or formal split and the loss of its monopoly on political
power? As China's exports fade, in such an export-oriented economy,
that puts drastic pressure on the "new middle classes" who have
benefited so much from the boom and are an important social base for
the CPC. On top of that, the CPC itself has been involved in a lot of
capitalist enterprises, which might go down the tubes. According to an
article in HARPER'S a year or two ago, the army is also involved in
such economic adventures.

So we might (emphasis on "might") see the CPC fall apart. In an effort
to prevent that, we might see a move in the direction of increased
central planning. But there are many parts of the CPC which would
oppose that...

This is pure speculation. Any expert opinion would be appreciated, as usual.

[*] Actually, if someone had asked me in 2006 or 2007 which countries
would suffer the most from the popping of the housing bubble, I would
have pointed to countries like Ireland and Spain. In general, those
countries with the greatest speculative bubbles (whether in housing or
not) suffer from the greatest collapses. (You'd think that the central
bankers would know this... but they don't seem to. No-one wants to
bad-mouth a bubble when it's swelling.)
-- 
Jim Devine /  "Nobody told me there'd be days like these / Strange
days indeed -- most peculiar, mama." -- JL.
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