Re: [Pen-l] The Depression: A Long-Term View

["Jim Devine" <jdevine03@xxxxxxxxx>]

me:
>> there's no down-side to "crying wolf"? it has no impact on one's credibility?<<

Carrol:
> One can't be unreasonably unreasonable; there are limits. But actually, one can make quite a few bad predictions without real loss of crdibility. And people will certainly remember the correct ones! This is after all the way real nuts and scalawags maintain credibility (e.g. astrologers), whowe 'predictions' are nutty on the face of it. <

astrologers can get away with it because they aren't talking about
anything substantial or controversial. (One reason why people like to
talk about sports, TV actors, and the weather is because it doesn't
involve any real conflict.) Besides their predictions are always
totally ambiguous (Delphic) and can be interpreted any way the reader
wants.

I try to predict the future, but I know that there are options. A
couple of years ago, I predicted what's happening now (to a group of
retired Jews) -- though not the same magnitude of melt-down. But I
also predicted that the economy could avoid collapse if debt-peonage
came back and military spending rose. See
http://myweb.lmu.edu/jdevine/SHJtalk040805.htm.

-- 
Jim Devine /  "Nobody told me there'd be days like these / Strange
days indeed -- most peculiar, mama." -- JL.
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