Re: [Pen-l] The Depression: A Long-Term View

[Carrol Cox <cbcox@xxxxxxxxx>]

Jim Devine wrote:
> 
> > For practical purposes of contributing to the growth of a mass
> left movement it is fairly harmless to predict disasters that don't
> occur. <
> 
> there's no down-side to "crying wolf"? it has no impact on one's credibility?

One can't be unreasonably unreasonable; there are limits. But actually,
one can make quite a few bad predictions without real loss of
crdibility. And people will certainly remember the correct ones! This is
after all the way real nuts and scalawags maintain credibility (e.g.
astrologers), whowe 'predictions' are nutty on the face of it. The point
is to be in a position, as things are falling apart, to be able to draw
people into the mass activity which you and I both call for. What I
still consider the worst mistake of my political career had already been
made before I quite realized I was in a mass movement (and certainly
before I became a marxist): I needed to write several letters to the
local paper in 1965 proclaiming that the U.S. would suffer a  horrible
defeat in Vietnam. I already sort of believed that but didn't want to
stick my neck out.

Carrol

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