Re: [Pen-l] Beijing statement on democratic economic reforms

["Chris Burford" <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

I must admit I had forgotten about UNCTAD, and I had no idea that 
organisations like this were finding venues in Beijing.

I don't think we are going to be in any situation like "dual power" but we 
are entering very strange territory and rapidly.

All the force of  the capitals that survive (which will be 90%) will want a 
more coherent stable global situation so they can ride out the trough and 
start accumulating more easily again. That is a given.

Also because of their long term monopolistics tendencies they will not 
object to some measures that plan more rationally on a global scale - eg 
they could make a lot of money out of an accelerated market in 
environmentally relevant products and services.

In terms of power politics we are at the point of seeing the abject collapse 
of an attempt at world hegemony by one power. No other power is going to be 
so foolish as to try to rush in and offend everyone.

In particular you can see that the Chinese are moving extremely tactfully - 
hence perhaps why they gave some financial assistance to this conference. If 
they join the new Group of 20, they will still want a lot of cover before 
revealing their hand.

The most obvious carve up for them if they thought like a great power of 100 
years ago, would be to do a deal with the new US administration to redivide 
the world, keep Japan on side, neutralise India, get a more dominant 
position in Africa

- and that is why they won't do it! - certainly not in anyway that could 
easily be recognised as such.

And as for Obama, "forever sizing up",as this article argues
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/26/news/26kantor.php
what vacuum could he fill?

It is an intriguing picture of a very intelligent chamaeleon, warm 
personally and administratively practical, but without any hard directions 
himself, and prone to go off into wistful and ironical dreams Unless he 
doesn't want to serve out two terms he is likely to see his satisfaction in 
bridging different parts of the world with which his life was connected. 
That does not include China, but he would be quite capable of reading the 
briefings about a restructuring of the IMF with some of the idealism with 
which it was originally set up.

Gordon Brown would have definite ambitions about the IMF  but is keeping a 
low profile now, probably for that reason. It will be interesting to see how 
closely and fast the UK and the US governments want to cooperate about their 
similar economic and social problems.

Sarkozy has all the traditions of French dirigism behind him. Angela Merkel 
is head of a Christian Democratic party that embodies significant social 
democratic influences, and she grew up as a pastor's daughter in East 
Germany. Putin is a dirigist, and would like to control the oligarchs 
better, but is likely to be open to approaches from Germany and China he 
badly needs the global economy to start burning gas again.

So yes, expect the world to start looking rather rapidly much more like a 
Swedish model of capitalism.including yes, some serious interest in reducing 
the vast range of income inequality - not least because consumer capitalism 
of the west would love to have a more prosperous market on a global scale.

So extremely oddly, I think we are entering an arena in which Gramscian 
ideas of civil society, including a global civil society, as contested 
terrain, are relevant.

Muh to be vigilant about, and it is absolutely not socialism. It will not be 
"social production controlled by social foresight" but there will a much 
greater consensus and readiness to use various mechanisms to ensure that the 
still mysterious and magical accumulation of capital, is "regulated" 
somewhat more coherently.

That might be a step in the right direction.

Now would any of the ideas in conference you link to, fit in with that Fred?

Chris Burford
London




----- Original Message ----- 
From: <fmoseley@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <pen-l@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, October 26, 2008 3:44 PM
Subject: [Pen-l] Beijing statement on democratic economic reforms



Below is the link to a tremendous proposal for democratic economic
reforms in response to the current economic crisis.  The statement is
the result of a conference two weeks ago in Beijing sponsored by
Asia-Europe People's Forum and the Transnational Institute and Focus on
the Global South. It is along the same lines as the Caracas statement,
but more detailed and more comprehensive.

http://casinocrash.org/?p=235#more-235

We should be trying to figure out how to interject these proposals into
the current policy debates in the US.

Any ideas?

Fred



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