Re: [Pen-l] Bubble Psychology [was: thinking the unthinkable

["Max Sawicky" <sawicky@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Right.  My point.  You're better off doing a mixture of stuff, some of which goes south, than doing nothing.

I remember reading somewhere -- Old Man Perelman would know about this -- that Fogel or somebody like that argues that public subsidies for railroads or maybe it was canals was not economically justified.

On Thu, Oct 23, 2008 at 2:37 PM, Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Oct 23, 2008, at 2:28 PM, Max Sawicky wrote:

I happen to be noodling now with that issue in re:  cost-benefit analysis.  My intuition is that over-confidence is ubiquitous in both the public and private sectors because it is a rational sort of 'irrationality.'

If it weren't for "over"-confidence, we might never do anything. See, for example, the evidence that depressed people have a more rational evaluation of their prospects than the un-depressed, which is one reason they have a hard time getting out of bed.

Doug

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