Re: [Pen-l] Bubble Psychology [was: thinking the unthinkable

["Max Sawicky" <sawicky@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

It would be odd, if logically possible, for over-confidence to be separately caused in distinct ways by different forms of society and/or economic systems.

I happen to be noodling now with that issue in re:  cost-benefit analysis.  My intuition is that over-confidence is ubiquitous in both the public and private sectors because it is a rational sort of 'irrationality.'

On Thu, Oct 23, 2008 at 2:17 PM, Jim Devine <jdevine03@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Max Sawicky wrote:
> Methinks optimism bias is not unique to capitalism.  Just ask Don Quixote.

this is another example of the logical slip I complained about
yesterday. I said that capitalism encourages over-confidence and you
respond with an over-interpretation, i.e., assuming that I said that
capitalism was the _only_ source of over-confidence.

obviously, other types of society besides capitalism involved
situations where over-confidence is needed as a psychological survival
mechanism. But it's capitalism which tends to make those situations
the rule. (Luckily capitalism hasn't realized that tendency
completely; as noted, there are pre-existing institutions of other
sorts.)

also, didn't Cervantes see Don Q as crazy? a holdover of feudalism in
the beginnings of capitalism?

--
Jim Devine /  "Nobody told me there'd be days like these / Strange
days indeed -- most peculiar, mama." -- JL.
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