Re: [Pen-l] Slow motion recession

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

On Jul 2, 2008, at 10:43 AM, Jim Devine wrote:

> I get the feeling that it's a "slow motion recession" because (1)
> journalists are paying much more attention to recessions than they
> used to and (2) they want something spectacular to happen. Most
> recessions, I would guess, don't happen overnight and in a spectacular
> way and are thus "slow motion." The upward movement of GDP and the
> like has a lot of momentum and can't reverse itself overnight.
> (Financial crises, on the other hand, are spectacular.)

Job growth in the late expansion was the weakest on record, so job  
loss is likely to be less dramatic on the downslide. Normally in a  
recession, we'd be seeing monthly job losses of 200,000-300,000 - now  
it's more like 50-75,000. Gross job gains and losses have been the  
lowest on record in recent years (though the record starts only in  
1992).

<http://www.bls.gov/bed/>

Much of the advertised "dynamism" of the U.S. job market has gone out  
the window.

Doug
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