[Pen-l] Why Obama will likely lose to McCain

["Julio Huato" <juliohuato@xxxxxxxxx>]

Louis gets into the horse-race and deems Obama likely to lose to McCain.

> I would agree with everything that Bob Herbert is saying,
> but would add that he is wrong to think that Obama is
> somehow holding back on some kind of message that
> will stir working people and the poor into electoral action.
> Obama, like the Democrats who preceded him in recent
> elections (Carter, Mondale, Clinton, Gore, Kerry) are not
> really Democrats--at least in the way that the party is
> understood in the pages of the Nation Magazine or among
> good liberals like Bob Herbert. They are *Eisenhower
> Republicans*.

Aside from the wishful thinking lodged in Louis' exercise, the remarks
he cites and those he makes show (to borrow a cliche) how "out of
touch" people -- even those portending to be in the look out -- can
get about what's really going on in the U.S. today.

Frankly, very little of what Louis says makes any sense.  He's peeing
at the wrong tree.  Only the surface of all this is about Obama.  It's
mostly about a shift in the political consciousness of the people in
the U.S. (and the rest of the world), a shift that 9/11 and the
occupation of Iraq only catalyzed.  The sources of this shift are yet
to be explored seriously.  Partially, they are demographic
(generational or immigration-driven).  But only partially.

For anyone with eyes to see (not too confused by ideological
preconceptions), this is a serious shift with tremendous potential for
progress.  Of course, it has limits.  It is stained by original sins,
carries heavy historical burdens, the political vehicles available are
seriously compromised, etc.  That happens all the time.

But the shift is still ongoing, being played at its early stages. If
history is any guide, a shift this serious won't exhaust itself until
some serious reforms are carried out (meeting or betraying
expectations or some combination thereof) or until the various
movements stemming from it suffer a series of decisive, catastrophic
defeats.

So, basically, the popular opposition to the war, the outrage among
African Americans for the official response to Katrina, the wave of
demonstrations for full rights to immigrant workers, *and* the
electoral insurrection Obama is leading are parts of one and the same
process.  The subject of this process is none other than the U.S.
working class, gradually acquiring in a clearer awareness of self.  At
this point, the expression of this shift is *Obama* -- much more than
Hillary Clinton.  (Effectively, McKinney and Nader are non
quantities.)

But, based on what we know now about Obama, the Democrats, U.S.
society, etc., with what certainty can we anticipate that an Obama
victory will squander the progressive potential seeded in this shift?
IMO, with as much certainty as we have to predict the opposite
outcome.  As for McCain, if xenophobia, red-baiting, Cold War
anti-Marxist propaganda is all he and his party have to stop Obama,
then we don't need Herbert (or Louis) to tell us how likely it is for
the Republicans to win.  Accidents can't be excluded, but if the main
trend is to assert itself the Republicans are not in a good position.
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