Re: Let.s Go Hillary

[Charles Brown <charlesb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

>>> Matthijs Krul
Contrary to what Charles Brown thinks, I think
the Bradley effect will be quite minor - Harold Ford in the 2006
Senate
election performed more or less as polled, and he was a really
rightist
Democratic candidate in Tennessee of all places. Obama has won such
bastions of ethnic diversity as Iowa, Utah and Idaho. The Bradley
effect,
I think, is pretty much coming to an end (even if racism obviously is
not). And aside from this, Obama does massively better than Clinton
among
independents (who tend to determine elections in the US), and has
vastly
less negatives that could unite Republicans against the Democrats.

^^^^^
CB: I didn't follow the Ford race closely, but I thought I heard on
television that he was ahead in the polls and then lost, which would be
the Bradley effect.

As to the Iowa caucuses, the format is voting publically, no secret
ballot. So, people are more on the spot to vote like they talk,
undermining the Bradley effect. As my brother predicted, though Obama
was ahead in the polls in New Hampshire, he lost there where there was a
secret ballot.

All and all, I think Obama is going a bit farther than Jackson back in
the 80's , and that indicates some lessening of overall racism. This is
probably especially true among his younger , white supporters.  His
campaign is a inherently a campaign against racism, and it is having
some effectiveness.