Re: the Black Swan

[Charles Brown <charlesb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

>>> Shane Mage
On Feb 5, 2008, at 6:50 PM, Jim Devine wrote:
>
> Taleb isn't against the bell curve as much as the assumption that
it's
> an accurate description of randomness in reality. He emphasizes the
> role of "outliers," which he sees as normal but totally
unpredictable.
> (and as having big effects, such as tanking Long-Term Capital
> Management.)

"Big" effect? Depends from whose point of view.  Quite apart from its
political and economic (not to speak of historical) triviality,  I
believe that
even now far more people would claim a clear recall of Johnny Podres's
shutout in the seventh gane of the 1955 series than can remember even
the haziest aspects of that big effect.

^^^^^^^^
CB: yea, depends on whose point of view. Taleb was a stockmarket
trader. From their standpoint  a lot of money was saved, maybe.
Evidently if it hadn't been bailed out, the biggest Moneybags felt it
would have caused some kind of crisis for them, so the big effect was
that a big crisis for the bourgeoisie was avoided.