Re: Ignore the Obituaries, U.S. Reign Will Endure

[Doug Henwood <dhenwood@xxxxxxxxx>]

On Feb 6, 2008, at 8:46 AM, Charles Brown wrote:

> > > > Doug Henwood
> On Feb 5, 2008, at 6:07 PM, Charles Brown wrote:
>
> > Ignore the Obituaries, U.S. Reign Will Endure
> >         Kevin Hassett
>
> This is not good news for fans of U.S. reign: Hassett was the co-
> author of that 1999 smash hit, Dow 36,000.
>
> Doug
>
> ^^^^^^
> CB: That prediction hasn't been disproven , has it ?

The Dow could well reach 36,000 someday, but Hassett & Glassman
thought the Dow shold have reached 36,000 very quickly after 1999. So
yes, Their argument was that markets had systemically overestimated
the risk of stocks, so PEs should have been much higher than they
were back then, at a point when PEs were extremely high. A year
later, the market fell apart and stocks were revealed to be quite
risky. So it's been disproven, massively.

Doug